Way Too Early Wisconsin Football Opponent Preview: Penn State

What to know about the new-look Nittany Lions

Apr 25, 2026; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell answers questions from the media following the Penn State Blue-White Spring game at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Just two postseasons ago, Penn State played in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff. Yet six games into the 2025 season, it fired its head coach, and it wasn’t a surprising move to many.

Entering 2026, the program has completely revamped its roster and identity, with former Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell set for his first season in Happy Valley as the program’s new leader. 

His first Big Ten home game will be the school’s homecoming and Wisconsin is the opponent. This will be another difficult game for the Badgers to emerge victorious, but they can certainly exude signs of progress by playing Penn State tough on the road. 

With a difficult-season opener at Lambeau, and this game posing arguably an equally as difficult task, it will be crucial for Wisconsin to take care of Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan before this contest.

How 2025 ended

Following James Franklin’s firing, the Nittany Lions faced a brutal three-game stretch. With games at Iowa and Ohio State, followed by a meeting with the eventual national champion Indiana, interim head coach Terry Smith started his run 0-3. 

Penn State did, however, play Indiana closer than any other team, and lost following a spectacular game-winning drive and touchdown catch.

After that gauntlet, the Nittany Lions found a rhythm to close the season, winning their final three regular-season games over Michigan State, Nebraska and Rutgers.

The three-game win streak saved the program’s bowl eligibility, which allowed it to head to New York City and defeat Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl.

After losing to Northwestern and firing its head coach, then losing the next three games as well, many thought Penn State’s season was over, but Smith rallied his group to close the season on a high note.

Key losses

Where I felt the Nittany Lions lost the most this offseason was through the draft, not the transfer portal. Olaivavega Ioane went in the top-15 of the NFL Draft and his departure left a gaping hole to be filled on the offensive line. 

As much as Penn State fans have complained about Drew Allar over the years, his season-ending injury derailed the season nearly as much, if not more, than the head coach being fired in 2025. He was also selected in the NFL draft, in the third round.

His departure will affect the 2026 team less than most teams replacing a quarterback because Campbell brought so much of his Iowa State team with him, but it’s still arguably the biggest change to the Penn State roster.

Jun 9, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Drew Allar (16) participates in drills during Minicamp at UPMC Rooney Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The highest-drafted Nittany Lion on the defensive side was Dani Dennis-Sutton, who totaled 8.5 sacks in each of the last two seasons. Luke Fickell and his staff prepared for him back in 2024, and I imagine his absence will be notable for the staff preparing a new game plan for this game in September.

Key additions

As I mentioned, Matt Campbell completely overhauled the roster, including a lot of his own guys from Iowa State. The headliner will be quarterback Rocco Becht at quarterback. His best season came in 2024 when he threw for 3,505 yards and 25 touchdowns. 

Luckily for Wisconsin, it will have already faced CJ Carr in the season-opener, so the jump from the quarterback play of Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan to Becht shouldn’t catch the defense off guard, but I expect Becht to play a huge role in the outcome of this game. 

Beaver Stadium will be by far the most hostile environment Colton Joseph has ever played in, which is why I think Marcus Neal Jr. may be the Penn State newcomer who poses the most significant threat to Wisconsin. The junior safety from Iowa State had 77 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, three pass breakups and two interceptions in 2025. 

For the Badgers to have a chance in this game, they'll need to establish the run and not turn the ball over. Whether Neal steps up to plug gaps in the run game, or lurks in the secondary to try to force a mistake from Joseph, he is a defensive player that could make a play that kills Wisconsin’s chance for an upset. 

With so many transfers–from Iowa State and elsewhere–this Penn State team will look essentially nothing like the one Fickell faced in 2024, but Becht and Neal are the guys on each side of the ball I think have the highest chance of determining the outcome of this contest.

2026 outlook

It seems unfair to place College Football Playoff expectations on a first-year head coach, but I think Campbell and Penn State have a favorable path to do so. 

Given it’s the first year of a program overhaul, I don’t think Penn State fans would be too upset with an 8-4 or 9-3 season that ends with a quality bowl game, but looking at the schedule, I don’t think there’s any reason competing for a playoff spot isn’t a reasonable goal. 

The Penn State Nittany Lions run onto the field to play Minnesota in a White Out game at Beaver Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022, in State College. Penn State won, 45-17. Hes Dr 102222 Whiteout | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

USC will visit Happy Valley in what I expect to be the White Out game, and trips to Michigan and Washington will be tough, but there’s no Oregon, Ohio State or Indiana on the schedule. 

I would guess Penn State enters 10 or 11 games favored to win, so there’s no reason this isn’t a team in the conversation for a playoff berth come December. 

Prediction

Penn State 27, Wisconsin 14

In my eyes, this is a game that the Wisconsin defense can keep the Badgers in. With much of the Penn State roster being Campbell’s Iowa State guys, it’s worth noting the Cyclones weren’t getting into shootouts in 2025.

The level of competition shouldn’t be eye-opening for Fickell’s group after playing Notre Dame a few weeks prior, but it’s still extremely difficult to win at Penn State.

I see this being a fairly competitive matchup, but Becht and the Penn State offense putting together a crucial scoring drive late to push things just out of reach for Wisconsin. 

Even with a loss here, I’d expect the Badgers to be sitting at 2-2, and I think that’s entirely reasonable given the opponents. It will be the games that follow that truly decide the direction of the program.