It's time for the Twins to embrace a youth movement
The Minnesota Twins' offseason started like a whirlwind. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine arrived at the Winter Meetings ready to throw some cash around but after a lovely dinner with Carlos Correa, Carlos Rodón and Xander Bogearts, they couldn't convince them to come to Minnesota.
Starting pitchers and shortstops flew off the board as Falvey and Levine reached like they were in a cash booth to improve their roster. A reported zoom meeting with Dansby Swanson and reports that "they were in" on each free agent followed but the Twins largely found themselves in the same spot they were in at the end of the season.
The groans of Twins fans grew louder as Correa agreed to two massive contracts. After weeks of silence, Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reported the Twins "expressed interest" in Michael Wacha and Jim Bowden also reported that the Twins were – you might want to sit down for this – looking for a shortstop and starting pitching depth.
Twins fans know how this ends. The free agents will sign with another club, a report will say that they're 'in on them" and the Twins will go to the bargain bin to pick out a journeyman to fill the rotation. Every year it's the same story and a fan base jaded by the sting of 18 straight playoff losses becomes even more apathetic.
At this point, there aren't many moves they can make to improve a team that was on a 90-loss pace over the final months of the season. But their most logical one might be to lean into a youth movement.
This is the last thing that Twins fans want to hear. When the Twins were struggling through the 2010s, fans were promised that Aaron Hicks, Danny Valencia and Chris Parmalee would save the day. A few years later, franchise savior Byron Buxton was struggling to finish a full season without the injured list and Miguel Sanó was whiffing his way to unemployment.
There's also the fact that tanking doesn't make sense in today's MLB. With 12 playoff teams, there's a better chance a mediocre team can make the postseason and make a run.
The San Diego Padres went 89-73 last season and proceeded to knock out two 100-win teams in the New York Mets (101-61) and Los Angeles Dodgers (111-51) on the way to the National League Championship Series. The Philadelphia Phillies went 87-75 and knocked out the Atlanta Braves (101-61) before defeating the Padres to reach the World Series.
The success of the Padres and Phillies could entice the Twins to make moves to win a division that currently projects the Chicago White Sox to win with an over/under of 85.5 wins. The problem is, most of the moves the Twins have made have been cosmetic.
In 2020, it meant Rich Hill and Homer Bailey. In 2021, it meant signing J.A. Happ, Andrelton Simmons and Alex Colomé. Last year it was the last-minute signings of Chris Archer and Carlos Correa.
When looking at what's available, it's hard to find a game-changer on the market. Thirty-seven-year-old Jhonny Cueto and 39-year-old Zach Greinke headline the starters that are still available and Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias are the top shortstops despite owning a lower OPS than new Twins signee Kyle Farmer.
Even signing Wacha, whose 3.32 ERA was his lowest since 2018, wouldn't move the needle for a team looking to make its way into the playoffs.
That's because a core that once fueled the 2019 Bomba Squad has begun to decay. Max Kepler's name has been linked to trade rumors, but his .666 OPS suggests he won't fetch much in return. Jorge Polanco, who is in the final year of a five-year, $25.7 million contract signed in 2019, has started to wear down after multiple ankle and knee injuries.
Then there's Buxton, who gutted through multiple injuries to play in 92 games – his most since 2017 – and make his first All-Star team, but his long-term future looks shaky at best.
Mix in a shaky pitching staff and a manager ready to pull a starter at the drop of a hat and the Twins aren't a desirable free-agent destination for impact talent – unless things go wrong.
When Josh Donaldson couldn't find a long-term deal, the Twins were there to give him a four-year, $92 million contract. When Carlos Correa's free agency was derailed by the lockout, the Twins were willing to back up the Brinks truck. When Joey Gallo hit .183 over the past three seasons, he found a one-year, $13 million deal in Minnesota.
Even Christian Vazquez needed a three-year, $30 million deal that will keep him in Minnesota through his age-35 season. It's fair to wonder if any other team was willing to go that far to acquire an aging catcher but it's where the Twins were willing to go.
So where does a team go in this situation? To their young talent.
The Twins' latest core hasn't come of age but it's the next wave of talent for a team looking to build a new foundation. When you look at the pieces, there's enough to not only build but compete in a weak division.
- Royce Lewis, who was forcing his way into the Twins lineup as a super-utility player before tearing his ACL last May.
- Jose Miranda, whose .751 OPS was the seventh-highest by a Twins rookie over the past 20 years and is projected to be the team's Opening Day third baseman.
- Alex Kirilloff, who has struggled through wrist problems but hit .359/.465/.641 with 10 homers during a 35-game stint with Triple-A St. Paul.
- Joe Ryan, who finished 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA while taking a no-hitter bid into the eighth inning before being pulled last September.
- Jhoan Duran, whose triple-digits fastball struck out 89 batters in 67.2 innings last season.
- Trevor Larnach, who was one of the team leaders in wins above replacement last season before undergoing core muscle surgery.
There's another list of players in the minor leagues as Simeon Woods Richardson made his major league debut last September, Austin Martin shook off a rough 2022 season by lighting up the Arizona Fall League and Matt Wallner slugged his way to the majors in the final months of the season.
The Twins would still benefit from adding an arm and more depth, but at this point, 2023 should be focused on the development of their young players which could get them farther than you think.
