Training camp preview: Who's ready for the Vikings' right guard competition?
*Taps mic*
Two Vikings right guards walk into a bar. The bartender walks right by them and sacks Kirk Cousins.
What’s big and purple and won’t be here very long? A Vikings right guard.
Knock knock. Who’s there? Right guard. Right guard, who? Oh, it must be training camp again.
Put it this way: The Minnesota Vikings interior offensive line issues over the years have been the butt of a lotta jokes. And like all good humor, there was plenty of truth behind it.
Since 2016 the Vikings have had a different Week 1 right guard every year. From Brandon Fusco to Joe Berger to Mike Remmers to Josh Kline to Pat Elflein to Oli Udoh, it’s been a trip. Out of those six years, the only time that a Vikings right guard ranked in the top 40 among guards at pass blocking by Pro Football Focus grade was in 2017 with Berger, who retired following that season.
So when the Vikings moved on from GM Rick Spielman and head coach Mike Zimmer, it made sense to expect them to take a different approach to the struggling interior offensive line. In some ways they did and in others they did not.
If we look from 30,000 feet, signing two cheap veterans and drafting a guy who hasn’t played right guard since he was 18 years old doesn’t appear to be much of a change up. Over the dark years of the right guard spot, the team’s approach has largely included moving players’ positions or signing someone for the least amount of money possible. They asked Berger, Remmers, Ezra Cleveland and Oli Udoh to play in a different spot than their natural position and the highest paid right guard the Vikings have put on the field in Week 1 since 2015 cost $4.6 million on the salary cap.
This time around, they are moving former Dolphins tackle Jesse Davis to guard and spending $4 million total between he and veteran journeyman Chris Reed. It seems they will also ask former LSU left guard and second-round pick Ed Ingram to move from the left to the right side to get into the competition as well.
None of that convinces us that the laughter will end any time soon. But with a microscope, you can see something in particular that deviates from the past: Strength in numbers.
Now it’s certainly no guarantee that throwing a bunch of bodies at the position is going to work but in recent training camps there was either no competition for a struggling player like Elflein or Remmers or an in-name-only competition. In 2021 camp, for example, Udoh went up against Dakota Dozier, who had struggled his way through the previous season at left guard and eventually returned on a contract worthy of a replacement-level player. He was cut after camp and brought back on the practice squad.
This time the competition looks to be legit. Davis and Reed were signed to very similar contracts and both have significant track records at the position.
While Davis played tackle almost exclusively last year, he played 509 snaps at right guard in 2020 and 921 plays at RG in 2018. The 2018 season stands out as Davis’s best pass blocking year in which he ranked 33rd in pass blocking grade. Though he was 44th of 56 in pass blocking efficiency, which is based on sacks and pressures allowed.
None of Davis’s numbers over a large sample size would hint that he’s going to transform the Vikings’ offensive line but him tanking it is unlikely too. Over his career, the 32-year-old lineman has played nearly 5,000 snaps, which says that his team didn’t feel they needed to replace him. There’s something to be said for that considering the Vikings have continued to shuffle players in and out looking for answers year after year. His PFF grades as a guard are on par with replacement level, which doesn’t sound exciting until you see that Udoh graded as the fourth worst guard in football last year.
Davis sets a bar for the rest of the contenders for the right guard job. If you can top his play, you are probably better than replacement level. If not, you shouldn’t be a starter.
Chris Reed has never been a full-time starter, spreading out 1,340 snaps over six seasons and five teams. He’s graded as an above average run blocker three years in a row and a shade below replacement level as a pass blocker. The former Mankato lineman had more highs and lows in his pass blocking than Davis. He put together four above average graded games and three with grades worthy of benching, including allowing five pressures in a matchup against Tennessee.
I figured that might be a product of shuffling between left and right guard but that was not the case. As a full-time starter for Carolina in 2020, Reed had a stretch of four straight games graded below 35, which is benchable-level play, and then followed that up with three straight over 70, which is very good.
If the battle comes down to Davis vs. Reed, the Vikings’ offensive staff will need to decide which player can be more consistent as well as give them a higher ceiling and better run blocking upside. There’s an argument for either player getting the job.
There might be an argument for neither player getting the job if Ed Ingram plays well or Wyatt Davis reminds the Vikings that he exists.
Let’s talk about the latter first. The current leadership seems to have about as much trust in their 2021 third-round pick as the last coaching staff. Davis, who was picked out of Ohio State and considered a contender to start right away, never saw the field in his rookie season — not even when the starting right guard went down in a game in which he was active. They chose Blake Brandel instead.
He has a chance to prove them wrong for spending free agent money on two veterans and a second-round pick on Ingram. The team did not randomly decide that Davis was not a part of the future — they assuredly provided him with the reasons he was not in the mix last year and areas in which he could improve. It’s within the realm of possibility that he could make the needed adjustments but it’s also stunning that he went from the favorite to be RG1 last year to suddenly the longshot dark horse for the job.
On the matter of Ingram: It would be a surprise if he came from behind to win the job because of the sheer level of experience of Davis and Reed. However, if he doesn’t win the job, it’s hard to say that picking him in the second round was justified. A second-round pick guard should be more gifted and offer an instant upgrade over replacement level players or they simply weren’t worth a second-round pick.
Evaluations on him around the draft coverage universe were very skeptical that he can ever become better than players like Reed and Davis.
“Ingram's physical and play profiles are a bit mismatched, which could have him drifting between starter and backup during his career,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein wrote.
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Because of Ingram’s past sexual assault charge and suspension from LSU, the draft pick already has a target on its back. The Vikings are arguing with his selection that their evaluation on Ingram is better than the consensus of the outside world. That’s certainly possible but historically it’s not always a great bet.
Where Ingram could stand out is pass protection. He graded very well at LSU last year as a pass blocker and allowed just 11 hurries in 484 pass blocking snaps. If his run blocking is behind but pass blocking scores better than Davis/Reed, this regime might value those things differently than the past group.
And in order to accomplish more than the past group, the new regime will need better results at guard than their predecessors. In 2021, Kirk Cousins faced the fourth most pressure from the right guard position in the NFL. In 2020, he was third. In 2019, seventh. You see where this is going. Cousins isn’t the type to escape rush up the middle and when he was pressured last year Cousins completed just 45.9% of his passes (per PFF). Reducing the number of snaps he’s under pressure is vital to better performance. Can that be done with scheme? Possibly. But scheme can only cover so much. The Vikings need to pick the right winner for the right guard competition or you’ll hear the same old punchlines.
