College Football’s No. 1 Recruiting Class Faces ‘Playoff-or-Bust’ Pressure, Says Greg McElroy

USC football delivered the nation's No. 1 recruiting class in 2026, a returning quarterback who led the Big Ten in passing and a Hall of Fame defensive coordinator now calling the shots. On paper, the Trojans look ready.

Greg McElroy isn't fully convinced.

On his Always College Football podcast, the ESPN analyst laid out a Big Ten tier list that put USC in a spot Lincoln Riley will not enjoy hearing about, and slapped a playoff-or-bust label on the season, raising the pressure even higher.

Why Greg McElroy calls USC 'playoff or bust' in 2026

McElroy grouped USC into his second tier of Big Ten teams, the group he believes can make the College Football Playoff without threatening for a national title. He made the stakes clear. "I think this year for USC, you can make a strong case it's playoff or bust because the talent does feel like it's there, and it actually feels like it's there on both sides of the ball," McElroy said.

His hesitation starts on defense. Under Riley, the Trojans have ranked near the bottom of the country on that side of the ball while the offense carried everything. McElroy pointed to a program record that tells the story plainly. USC has lost seven straight games against top-10 competition.

Riley made the move meant to fix that, hiring Gary Patterson to run the defense. Patterson spent 21 seasons as the head coach at TCU and enters the 2026 College Football Hall of Fame class, and his units regularly finished among the best scoring defenses in the country. Maiava has already noticed the shift.

"Credit to GP (Gary Patterson). He just sets the standard, and he sets the mindset and the mentality that he wants for his defense, and everybody's along, and everybody's on the same page," the quarterback said at Big Ten Media Days.

The offense returns Jayden Maiava, who threw for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns last season and earned Third Team All-Big Ten honors. McElroy noted that Maiava was excellent at home and much worse on the road, and the quarterback owned the problem himself in Chicago.

"I watched back on all the turnovers that I've had, and it was all just bad decisions in terms of immature decisions, not really going through it," Maiava said.

USC also lost Biletnikoff Award winner Makai Lemon to the NFL, though Chad Bowden's top-ranked class is built to reload.

Lincoln Riley, USC face a crowded Big Ten second tier

Even in a good season, USC finishes fourth or fifth in its own conference. McElroy stacked Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana in a tier by themselves, three programs that have combined to win the last three national championships. The Trojans are nowhere near that group, and pretending otherwise ignores four years of evidence.

The second tier is where it gets ugly for USC, because it is packed. Washington, Penn State and Michigan all sit alongside the Trojans, and each has a real case to jump them. That is the trap. USC can improve and add talent and still watch three or four teams finish ahead of it.

McElroy called the schedule one of the toughest slates in the league. Oregon and Ohio State come to Los Angeles, but the Trojans travel to Penn State and Indiana, and a road trip to Washington looms. Maiava's home-road split is the exact wrong profile for that slate.

USC Football head coach Lincoln Riley speaks during Media Days at Hilton Chicago. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Riley is not hiding from the expectations. "I do believe we're more equipped than at any point in the previous few years. That's not a hope or a wish. There are a lot of facts to back that up," he said at Media Days.

USC signed 35 prospects for a class that ranked No. 1 nationally, the program's first top-ranked haul since the Pete Carroll era and the first No. 1 class for a non-SEC school since 2008. The headliners are three five-stars: offensive tackle Keenyi Pepe out of IMG Academy, rated the No. 1 tackle in the country, cornerback Elbert Hill from Archbishop Hoban in Ohio and Mater Dei tight end Mark Bowman.

General manager Chad Bowden pulled off one of the bigger signing-day moves when he flipped Mater Dei receiver Kayden Dixon-Wyatt from Ohio State, and he added Texas defensive lineman Jaimeon Winfield, Illinois quarterback Jonas Williams and running backs Deshonne Redeaux and Shahn Alston.

Keenyi Pepe of IMG Academy — Keenyi Pepe, OL, 6'7, 330 pounds, is one of the highest-rated prospects from USC's No. 1 recruiting class. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The class leaned heavily on defense and the trenches, the exact areas that have held USC back under Lincoln Riley, and 19 of the signees came from California as Bowden rebuilt the program's local recruiting.

ESPN's Pete Thamel framed the stakes without much cushion. "They could make the Playoff or Lincoln Riley could get fired, and I don't see a whole lot in the middle there," Thamel said on the College GameDay Podcast.

The No. 1 recruiting class brings optimism, not patience. When McElroy says playoff or bust, he is describing a Big Ten so top-heavy that a nine-win season missing the playoff again would land as a failure, and USC's schedule gives Riley very little room to deliver anything else.

Add us as a preferred source on Google