ESPN FPI predicts struggling ACC program could be on upset alert in Week 3

Virginia Tech faces Old Dominion with bowl hopes already at stake

ESPN's Bill Connelly believes Virginia Tech is at risk of a third straight loss against Old Dominion on Saturday. | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Virginia Tech enters Week 3 of the college football season staring at a must-win moment. After dropping back-to-back games to Vanderbilt and Marshall, the Hokies sit at 0-2 for the first time since 2010. Their next test comes against Old Dominion, a Sun Belt opponent with a history of making things difficult for Tech.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has cast doubt on the Hokies’ chances. The metric gives Virginia Tech a 65.6 percent probability of beating Old Dominion, down nearly 20 percentage points from where that number stood before last weekend. While the Hokies are listed as 7.5-point favorites on ESPN Bet, FPI projects just a 3.8-point margin, highlighting a real chance for another early-season stumble.

ESPN analyst Bill Connelly pointed to Virginia Tech’s flat performance in the second half against Vanderbilt as a warning sign. “The Hokies’ offense had just about the worst body language I’ve ever seen heading out onto the field,” Connelly said. “They didn’t score another point, and the defense didn’t make another stop.” For a program seeking stability under head coach Brent Pry, that’s not encouraging.

Virginia Tech Faces Pressure To Avoid 0-3 Start

The stakes are obvious for Virginia Tech. If the Hokies lose to Old Dominion, they would start 0-3 for the first time since 1987. That kind of beginning would represent a serious blow for Pry, who is 16-23 in his tenure and still looking to establish momentum in Blacksburg.

Old Dominion has a proven track record against Virginia Tech. In 2022, the Monarchs pulled off a 20-17 upset in Norfolk in Pry’s first game as a head coach. This year’s team brings an intriguing quarterback in Colton Joseph, who has made plays both through the air and on the ground.

Virginia Tech Hokies head coach Brent Pry is on the hot seat after two straight losses to open the 2025 college football season. | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

The Monarchs also opened the season by landing early punches against Indiana and have overperformed against advanced metrics in each of their first two games.

That history and form give Old Dominion confidence heading into Lane Stadium. For Virginia Tech, the path forward demands sharper execution on offense and a defense capable of finishing stops. Anything less could open the door for another program-defining upset in this in-state matchup.

Why ESPN’s FPI Sees Risk For The Hokies

FPI is designed to measure team strength and predict outcomes by weighing offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency. It uses expected points added to gauge how each unit contributes to scoring margin. While not a ranking system, it functions similarly to the models that sportsbooks use to set lines.

The concern for Virginia Tech comes from how quickly its odds have dropped. A week ago, the Hokies had an 83 percent chance to beat Old Dominion. That number has fallen by more than 17 percent after their collapse against Vanderbilt. The decline illustrates how little confidence predictive metrics have in Tech’s ability to perform consistently.

Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) has only completed 50% of his passes, throwing for 355 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

That swing matters because the Hokies are playing for postseason survival. To reach a third straight bowl appearance, they must win six of their final 10 games. Dropping a third straight contest, especially against an in-state Sun Belt program, would leave the margin for error razor-thin in ACC play. It would also deepen questions about whether Pry is the right coach to turn Virginia Tech into a steady contender again.

Saturday’s game offers a chance at redemption and stability. The Hokies will face Old Dominion at Lane Stadium with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.