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ESPN FPI has 2 teams tied as College Football Playoff favorites

Two CFP teams are equal favorites to win the title in ESPN's FPI calculations.
Joe Cox|
ESPN has two teams equal as favorites in the hunt for the next CFP title.
ESPN has two teams equal as favorites in the hunt for the next CFP title. | Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

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Ohio State BuckeyesIndiana Hoosiers

If you can't pick one favorite, maybe it's wise to pick two. That certainly seems to be the logical play with ESPN, as their FPI rankings give two teams an even chance to win the national title-- even beyond the tenth of a percent. FPI is a slightly controversial prediction index that ties past performance into a mathematical attempt to predict future results.

Throughout the 2025 season, ESPN not only ranked the teams, but forecast their chance to win their respectives leagues, to earn a CFP berth, and even to win the CFP title. But heading into the opening week of CFP play, two teams are in exactly the same shape on top of ESPN's ranking of most likely teams to win the national title.

FPI's title favorites

Both Ohio State and Indiana are given a 25.9% chance to win the CFP title. Interestingly, Ohio State is slightly more likely to reach the title game, in ESPN's reckoning (a 45% chance for the Buckeyes against a 43.1% chance for Indiana). The two are massive co-favorites, as ESPN's third team in terms of title likelihood is Georgia, with an 11.6% shot at winning the title.

The Remainder of the CFP field

The only other teams with a better than 10% chance at the championship are Texas Tech and Oregon. The Red Raiders are rated at a 10.9% chance to win the title. The Ducks are rated with a 10.3% chance to grab the title.

No team outside of those five has a greater than 4.8% chance at winning the title-- with that particular figure being linked to Ole Miss's title chances. ESPN's computers certainly don't think well of the two Group of Five teams, as ESPN gives both Tulane and James Madison a 0.1% chance at winning the CFP crown. James Madison is rated with an 0.5% chance of reaching the title game, while Tulane's chance is 0.4%.

Confusion reigns about FPI's ratings

The math-related details behind the CFP can be complicated. 6-6 Penn State is still FPI's No. 17 team in the nation, while 5-7 Auburn is No. 26. FPI also greatly appreciated Notre Dame, ranking the Irish third nationally. That's comfortably ahead of the Miami and Alabama teams that grabbed the last CFP spots instead of the Irish (Miami ranks seventh and Notre Dame eighth at all. But when it comes to title chances, the FPI is all in on two teams in an exactly equal measure.

Indiana/OSU
Indiana and Ohio State are favored in exactly equal measures by ESPN's FPI ratings. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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Joe Cox
JOE COX

Joe is a journalist and writer who covers college and professional sports. He has written or co-written over a dozen sports books, including several regional best sellers. His last book, A Fine Team Man, is about Jackie Robinson and the lives he changed. Joe has been a guest on MLB Network, the Paul Finebaum show and numerous other television and radio shows. He has been inside MLB dugouts, covered bowl games and conference tournaments with Saturday Down South and still loves telling the stories of sports past and present.

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