Michigan vs. Purdue, Big Ten Championship Game prediction, preview
Michigan looks to further cement its hold on the College Football Playoff as it squares off against Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday.
Win or lose, it appears Michigan is one of the locks for the national semifinal after finishing the regular season undefeated, capped off by a dominant victory over a then-ranked No. 2 Ohio State team on the road.
But the Boilermakers are an upset-minded team in recent years, building a reputation for beating top-five ranked teams, including two last season, going 3-0 in that situation under coach Jeff Brohm, and field an aggressive passing attack led by veteran quarterback Aidan O'Connell.
Here's what you should be watching for as Michigan and Purdue meet up in Indianapolis to determine the Big Ten football champion for the 2022 season.
Michigan vs. Purdue preview, prediction
Michigan vs. Purdue, Big Ten Championship Game predictions
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How to watch, stream
When: Sat., Dec. 3
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Odds, point spread, betting lines, trends
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: Michigan comes into the game as 16.5 point favorites against Purdue, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Total: 52 points
Moneyline: Purdue +500 | Michigan -901
FPI prediction: Michigan has the overwhelming 89.0 percent chance to win the game outright, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' 20,000 times. Purdue has the outside 11.0 percent shot to pull off the upset.
Related: Michigan vs. Purdue picks, predictions: Big Ten Championship Game odds, spread, lines
+ Purdue is 0-5 against the spread in its last 5 games after passing for more than 280 yards in its previous game
+ Under is 6-1 in Michigan's last 7 games after an ATS victory
+ The over is 8-1 in Purdue's last 9 games after an ATS win
+ Under is 5-1 in Michigan's last 6 games after it scored 40-plus in its previous game
+ Over is 7-1 in Purdue's last 8 games against winning teams
Michigan vs. Purdue: What you need to know
1. Purdue can throw it. Far and away the key to any chance Purdue has to actually beat Michigan is quarterback Aidan O'Connell. He averages 260 passing yards per game while throwing 22 touchdowns against 11 picks, and leans on two primary targets in tight end Payne Durham and receiver Charlie Jones, who together are hitting around 12 yards per catch and have scored 20 of Purdue's 25 touchdowns through the air. The Boilermakers run the ball moderately well, led by Devin Mockobee, who's good for plus-5 ypc, and he has to get early gains for the passing game to be a threat down the stretch.
2. Michigan's injuries. Two of the top players that helped put the Wolverines in the Big Ten title game are dealing with injuries. One is definitely out, and another might be. Running back Blake Corum is having season-ending surgery on his knee, depriving UM of the player who is 3rd in FBS with 19 TD runs and 8th with 1,463 rushing yards. Mike Morris, the Big Ten's defensive lineman of the year who leads the team with 7.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss, is questionable. Michigan needs to get more from its front seven alignment to adequately pressure O'Connell and disrupt an efficient Purdue aerial attack.
3. Where Michigan goes now. Not having Corum is the last thing Michigan wants to hear, but it also didn't have him for the Ohio State game and it didn't seem to cut into the team's output too seriously. J.J. McCarthy came alive last week, posting almost 22 yards per pass and has a cadre of excellent targets to throw against a Purdue pass defense that ranked 10th in the Big Ten this year. Plus, backup rusher Donovan Edwards is coming off a superb showing against OSU when he ran for touchdowns of 75 and 85 yards. Michigan has options everywhere and can balance things out to keep the Boilermakers guessing. But it needs to hit the ground hard without Corum: Michigan averaged just 3.5 ypc on the carries that didn't go for long scores.
Michigan vs. Purdue: Fast Facts
+ Michigan is 7th nationally with 39.8 points per game
+ Purdue is 1st in Big Ten with 276.6 passing yards per conference game
+ Michigan is 2nd nationally in total defense allowing 262.2 yards per game
+ Purdue's Charlie Jones is 1 of 2 WR to rank top 10 nationally in catches, touchdowns, and receiving yards
+ Michigan is 3rd nationally in scoring defense allowing 12.7 points per game
+ Purdue went 32 of 34 in the red zone in Big Ten games, 1st with 94.1%
+ Michigan is 3rd in NCAA with 35 rushing touchdowns
+ Purdue is 1 of 9 teams nationally with 3 pick-sixes this year
+ Wolverines are 7th nationally going 56 of 60 in the red zone (93.3%)
+ Boilermakers are 29-9 when leading at halftime under Jeff Brohm and 7-24 when trailing
+ Michigan is 10-10 when its opponent has a 100-yard receiver under Jim Harbaugh
+ Purdue is 1-14 when scoring 14 or fewer points under Brohm and 12-2 when scoring 40-plus
+ Michigan is 2nd nationally with 6 turnovers and INT thrown (3)
Michigan vs. Purdue Prediction
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Never in the history of the Big Ten Championship Game — since 2011, so it's not exactly ancient history — has a team from the West Division won the title. In the process, they've been outscored 283 to 123.
Purdue will get more than a few chunk plays when O'Connell is able to hit Durham or Jones, who will get some decent yards after the catch. But the Wolverines are better equipped than Purdue's other opponents to adjust their alignments, generate pressure on the pocket, and progressively nudge these receivers off their patterns as the game wears on.
While on the other side, the Boilermakers don't have the equipment to consistently do the same against a unit that has McCarthy and these targets — the likes of Ronnie Bell and Cornelius Johnson, and tight end Luke Schoonmaker — or the push that Michigan has off the line to open running lanes inside and out.
College Football HQ Prediction: Michigan 36, Purdue 23 | Michigan doesn't cover the spread (Purdue +16.5) | Total hits the under
Related: College football conference championship game picks, predictions
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