Oklahoma vs. Florida State Cheez-It Bowl game prediction, pick against the spread
College football bowl season is inching closer towards the playoff and national championship as bigger teams are set to take the field near the end of the calendar year, with Oklahoma and Florida State squaring off in this year's Cheez-It Bowl.
Both schools come in looking to make a good impression as they continue to break in new coaches: Florida State under Mike Norvell, who has his first winning season in three years on the job, and Oklahoma, which stumbled to a 6-6 mark under first-year head man Brent Venables.
A win would give the Seminoles their first 10-win season since the 2016 campaign while a loss would plunge the Sooners to their first losing season since 1998.
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This year's Cheez-It Bowl presents what could be an intriguing matchup between Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis, the dynamic starter who has announced he'll return to school next year, against a Sooners defense that has struggled this fall, allowing more than 35 points per game in six games.
Here's what you need to know about the Cheez-It Bowl between the Sooners and the Seminoles along with our prediction for the matchup.
Cheez-It Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida State preview, predictions
Oklahoma vs. Florida State bowl game predictions, picks
How to watch, stream
When: Thurs., Dec. 29
Time: 5:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: Florida State -9.5 (-118) | Oklahoma +9.5 (-118)
Total: 66.5 points | Over -118 | Under -110
Moneyline: Florida State -400 | Oklahoma +275
FPI prediction: Florida State has the 65.1 percent chance to win the game, compared with Oklahoma at 34.9 percent, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.
More: Oklahoma vs. Florida State picks, predictions for Cheez-It Bowl
Oklahoma Sooners betting trends
+ Sooners are 4-8 against the spread overall this season
+ Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS against a team with a winning record
+ Under is 5-1 in OU's last 6 after scoring 40-plus the last time out
+ Sooners are 5-1 against the spread in their last neutral site games
Florida State Seminoles betting trends
+ Seminoles are 8-4 against the spread overall this year
+ The under is 5-1 in FSU's last 6 games after an ATS loss
+ Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after an ATS loss
+ The over is 4-0 in Florida State's last four games on a Thursday
Cheez-It Bowl: Keys to victory
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Oklahoma wins if: It can turn its yards into points and contain Jordan Travis. The Sooners rank below average in the Big 12 this year scoring 32.9 points per game, but they're second-best in the league in terms of total yards on average each time out. That production takes a hit as 1,000-yard back Eric Gray has opted out, combined with issues protecting the pass off the edges, but OU has Marvin Mims at receiver and team-leader in TD catches Brayden Willis working with Dillon Gabriel, who's at nearly 3,000 yards passing with 29 total touchdowns.
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Florida State wins if: It can protect Travis and avoid turnovers. The Seminoles' quarterback is the 4th player in school history to eclipse 3,000 total yards with at least 30 touchdowns. A mobile threat himself, Travis also has plenty of help from a dynamic backfield that was 1st in the ACC in rushing. FSU is top 20 in college football in total offense and scoring and faces a Sooner defense that, despite its struggles overall, led the Big 12 with 20 takeaways and 16 intercepted passes.
Oklahoma vs. Florida State Prediction
Oklahoma has a few solid pieces to work with, especially at quarterback and at receiver, but the loss of Gray, its issues protecting Gabriel, and perennial inability to generate pressure from the front seven are structural weaknesses.
OU can stabilize things by grabbing the odd turnover and getting chunk plays from Gabriel, but otherwise the Seminoles have the advantage when it comes to making stops, shortening drives while controlling the clock behind a consistent rushing threat, and breaking open big plays with Travis and a receiver group that can get yards after the catch.
The stat that helped define Oklahoma's season was 14: when it allowed that many points or fewer, OU was 5-0. When it allowed more, it was 1-6. Florida State has the pieces to score more than twice on this defense.
College Football HQ Cheez-It Bowl prediction: Florida State 34, Oklahoma 23 (Florida State -9.5, Under 66.5)
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