A pair of Lone Star State conference rivals face off in the regular season finale as Texas hosts Baylor still with a shot at the Big 12 Championship Game as college football's Week 13 action heats up on Black Friday.
No, that well-worn cliche does not fully apply to Texas, which doesn't "control its own destiny," but it does control part of it. By beating Baylor on Friday, it's still technically in the race to get to Arlington and another shot at TCU.
That is, provided Kansas defeats Kansas State on Saturday. Texas beat the Wildcats earlier this season and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, but Kansas State would have the superior overall and conference record if it beats KU combined with a Longhorns loss to Baylor.
Place your bets: College football picks against the spread in Week 13
As for Baylor? The defending Big 12 champs are 0-4 against ranked teams this season a year after going 5-1 against top 25 opposition en route to that league title last fall.
Baylor had a nice three-game win streak midway through this season to inch back in the conversation, but then came two costly losses, by 28 against Kansas State and a 1-point decision at home thanks to TCU's successful fire-drill field goal at the last second.
What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.
Texas vs. Baylor picks, predictions
Texas prediction: The computer is siding heavily with the Longhorns, who have the 81.6 percent chance to win the game outright.
Baylor prediction: That leaves the defending Big 12 champions with the outside 18.4 percent shot to upset Texas and finish the season with a win.
Point spread: Texas comes into the game as 8.5 point favorites to win the game, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
Place your bets: Bet on Texas vs. Baylor at SI Sportsbook
Betting trends: Baylor is 5-1 ATS after a straight up loss... The over is 4-0 in Baylor's last four road games... The under is 6-1 in Texas' last seven home games... The favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last four of this series.
Total: 56 points
Moneyline: Baylor +240 | Texas -333
Score prediction: Team Rankings estimates that Texas will defeat Baylor by a score of 32.0 to 23.1 on Saturday.
College Football HQ prediction: Our own projections indicate that Texas has the 83 percent chance to defeat Baylor, 33-22, and cover the spread.
How to watch: The game is set for Fri., Nov. 25 at 11 a.m. Central time on the main ESPN network and streams on fuboTV (Try for free).
College football pick 'em: Week 13 picks, predictions by computer model
College Football Power Index
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
College football rankings
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Kansas State
- Notre Dame
- Florida State
- North Carolina
- Ole Miss
- Oregon State