Alabama vs. LSU preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?
A pair of SEC West rivals meet up in Death Valley with everything on the line as LSU welcomes Alabama in college football's Week 10 action on Saturday.
Alabama is already at one loss, on the road to Tennessee, and has no margin for error going forward, needing to win out and make the SEC Championship Game to earn any real chance at the College Football Playoff.
LSU comes in at two losses, but tied for the lead in the SEC West title chase and actually have a chance to get to Atlanta itself with a positive showing in this game, by far the most important of Brian Kelly's young tenure.
Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.
Alabama vs. LSU preview, prediction
Week 10 college football picks: Alabama vs. LSU
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How to watch
When: Sat., Nov. 5
Time: 7 p.m. ET, 6 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
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Odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Point spread: Alabama comes into the game as 13 point favorites to defeat LSU on Saturday, according to the oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook.
O/U: The book set the over/under at 58 points for the matchup.
Moneyline: Alabama -568, LSU +370
FPI prediction: Football Power Index gives Alabama the 76.4 percent chance to defeat LSU, and the Tigers the 23.6 percent shot to take down the Crimson Tide, according to the computer that simulates teams' seasons 20,000 times to predict scores based on previous results and schedules.
Related: Alabama vs. LSU picks, predictions: Week 10 college football odds, spread, lines
Alabama vs. LSU: What you need to know
1. Alabama's receiver room. Bryce Young commands a gifted corps of receivers coming in capable of generating rhythm in the deeper portion of the field right away. Alabama has distributed the ball well this season, with five receivers all catching over 20 passes. Ja'Corey Brooks and Traeshon Holden are the Tide's most potent weapons in the red zone. Brooks leads the team in yardage and Holden with five touchdown receptions. But watch especially how running back Jahmyr Gibbs, a capable receiver who can get in space and earn yards after the catch on check downs, can stack up gains on quick developing, intermediate patterns.
2. Keeping Jayden Daniels in check. Good luck with that, because the LSU quarterback has been on a tear lately. He averages 292 yards of total offense per game, on par with Bryce Young's output, and also leads the team in rushing production - and is fourth among FBS quarterbacks with 524 yards on the ground, good for 4.6 ypc and 9 additional TDs. Daniels' arm isn't bad either: he's hitting 70% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. Alabama fields a dominant pursuit group at the line and will have to put most of its attention towards containing Daniels from slipping out of the pocket.
3. Stemming the Tide. Alabama doesn't get much from Bryce Young as a runner, as he totaled minus-1 yard on the ground in the last five games, and traditionally the Tide have beaten LSU by dominating in that phase of the game. In its last two on the road in this series, Bama has out-rushed LSU, 546-110. Despite Nick Saban's adoption of the modern passing attack, he'll want to set Jahmyr Gibbs against LSU's talented front seven early: he's over 200 yards rushing with five scores in Alabama's last two road games.
Fast Facts
— Alabama is 13-5 (.722) coming off a bye week under Nick Saban
— LSU has won 11 straight games when scoring 30-plus points
— Crimson Tide has held 6 of 18 opponents to 10 or fewer points after a bye
— 3 of LSU's 4 wins have been comebacks from double-digit deficits, the most since its 2007 national title team
— Bama's first-team offense has scored TDs on 33 drives, averaging 2:11 of game time and 5.7 plays per drive
— LSU has won 10 straight games when rushing for 200-plus yards, 4-0 this season
— Alabama allows a sack every 55.3 pass attempts
— LSU allowed 0 points in 6 of 10 second half quarters against SEC opposition
— Bama has surrendered just 7 sacks in 8 games (0.88 per game)
— LSU is 114th nationally allowing 3.25 sacks per game
— Alabama is tied for 1st nationally with 6.02 yards per rush
— Both teams are heavily penalized: LSU is 100th with 54 flags and Alabama is 130th with 69 infractions
— Tide have won 49 of its last 50 games when scoring a TD on the first drive of the game
— Alabama is 5th nationally in third down defense (26.4%)
— Alabama has scored 40-plus points in 45 of its last 64 games, or 70.3% of the time, 1st nationally
Alabama vs. LSU Prediction
This game is why Brian Kelly took the LSU job, a chance to play the best teams in marquee games and throw his weight around the SEC.
But his team has played unpredictable football much of the season. It got punched in the mouth at home by Tennessee, allowing 40 points in a loss, but then itself put on 40 in games against Florida and Ole Miss, in the latter case outscoring the Rebels 42-3 after an early deficit.
Daniels will get some yards on the edges and LSU's receivers will be able to test the Tide's back seven consistently in the early phase of the game.
But Alabama's front seven alignment won't let the quarterback scramble all night as its linebackers and pass rush settle in, and ultimately this backfield has the power to move the chains late.
College Football HQ Prediction: Alabama 36, LSU 27
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