Clemson vs. Notre Dame preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?
Clemson and Notre Dame square off in the House that Rockne Built as college football's Week 10 action picks up on Saturday.
Clemson is officially in College Football Playoff contention after emerging as the No. 4 team in the first CFP rankings this week and has a chance to return to the semifinal if it can win out the rest of the way.
Notre Dame isn't going to any fancy bowl game this postseason after starting 5-3 in Marcus Freeman's debut season, but has been playing better lately, especially against ACC competition: the Irish have defeated two of that league's best in North Carolina and Syracuse, scoring more than 40 points in each game.
Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.
Clemson vs. Notre Dame preview, prediction
Week 10 college football picks: Clemson vs. Notre Dame
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How to watch
When: Sat., Nov. 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Point spread: Clemson comes into the game as narrow 3.5 point favorites to defeat Notre Dame, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.
O/U: The oddsmakers at SI set the over/under for 44.5 points for the matchup.
Moneyline: Clemson -200, Notre Dame +145
FPI prediction: Football Power Index projects that Clemson has the 64.8 percent chance to beat the Fighting Irish, which in turn have the 35.2 percent shot to upset the visiting Tigers, according to the computer that simulates games 20,000 times using past scores and schedules.
Related: Clemson vs. Notre Dame picks, predictions: Week 10 college football odds, spread, lines
Clemson vs. Notre Dame: What you need to know
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1. Will Shipley vs. the Irish D. Clemson's superb sophomore running back has been one of the premier rushers in the nation this season, stacking up 739 yards and 10 touchdowns, the main threat in this offense coming off a career-best 172 yards against Syracuse. But the Irish are fierce against the run, especially up front, and can clog up the running lanes on the interior, allowing just over 129 yards per game and keeping opponents to under 4 ypc. Notre Dame wants to limit long gainers on the ground from the inside and force DJ Uiagalelei to win the game with his arm and reduce this offense to one dimension.
2. Clemson up front. Early in the season, it was Clemson's secondary that struggled and its front seven that looked elite. But in the last two games, the opposite appears true. There's been a lack of continuity on the line as players shuffle in and out due to injuries, but the Irish could present an opportunity: they rank 80th in plays that gain 20 yards and don't have a reputation as an aggressive offensive team. But they can run: Notre Dame went over 200 yards rushing in four of its last five games. Watch how Audric Estime works early against the Tiger front; he averages 5.6 ypc and has 8 of the team's 14 rushing TDs.
3. Clemson finishing drives. On the surface, Clemson is one of the best teams in college football when it gets in scoring position. It ranks third among 131 FBS teams having converted on 38 of 39 possessions in the red zone overall. But when you take out the field goals, that average falls to 71.79% of the time accounting for just touchdowns. Clemson should have the advantage this week, as Notre Dame is one of two teams left in college football to allow opponents to score 100 percent of the time in the red zone.
Fast Facts
— Clemson has rushed for a TD in 62 of its last 63 games
— Notre Dame is 5-0 when holding the ball for more than 30 minutes
— Clemson made the national championship game in 4 of the last 5 times it started 8-0 in a season under Dabo Swinney
— Irish have blocked 5 punts, 1st nationally
— Clemson is the only team with 3 wins against AP top 25 teams
— Notre Dame allows 3.75 TFLs per game, 10th best nationally
— Clemson is 135-8 when leading at halftime and 16-25 when trailing under Swinney
— Irish are 107th nationally with a minus-0.62 turnover margin per game
— Clemson is 41-4 when facing an opposing head coach for the first time
— Notre Dame is 30-1 in regular season against ACC teams since 2017
— Clemson has won 103 of its last 104 games when holding teams under 23 points
— Irish have won 14 straight home games against ACC teams
— Clemson has won 14 straight games, college football's longest active streak
— Notre Dame is 16th nationally with 3.0 sacks recorded per game
— Clemson has won 34 of last 38 road games (.895), the best mark nationally
Clemson vs. Notre Dame Prediction
Notre Dame will be able to get some momentum by running the ball and getting the backs involved in the passing game on intermediate routes.
And the Irish should be able to test Clemson's back seven coverage unit provided it can adequately protect Drew Pyne, who's been very touch-and-go throwing the ball but has had his moments, and give him time to build some rhythm.
But adding up all the advantages, Clemson has the edge at quarterback, at running back, and especially on the defensive front alignment.
Notre Dame is running right into Clemson's strength — it's 7th nationally allowing under 88 yards per game — and DJ Uiagalelei has enough targets to properly spread the Irish back defense out of position and keep the chains moving.
College Football HQ Prediction: Clemson 33, Notre Dame 23
College Football Playoff Rankings
- Tennessee
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Clemson
- Michigan
- Alabama
- TCU
- Oregon
- USC
- LSU
- Ole Miss
- UCLA
- Kansas State
- Utah
- Penn State
- Illinois
- North Carolina
- Oklahoma State
- Tulane
- Syracuse
- Wake Forest
- NC State
- Oregon State
- Texas
- UCF