2026 Heisman Trophy Predictions: 5 Favorites to Win College Football's Biggest Award

From a D-II transfer who sued the NCAA to a wide receiver trying to break a six-year positional drought, the 2026 Heisman race is loaded with storylines

Quarterbacks have dominated in winning the Heisman Trophy in recent years, but can a player from another position earn the recognition in 2026? | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Every August, the Heisman Trophy conversation starts with a handful of obvious names. Every December, most of those names are watching the ceremony from home.

Fernando Mendoza proved it last year when he went from afterthought to winner after leading Indiana to an undefeated season and a national championship. The lesson is simple: preseason favorites rarely finish the job. The last one to do it was Marcus Mariota at Oregon back in 2014.

That said, the 2026 favorites are built differently. Four of the five names below turned down NFL money to come back to school. The fifth already owns the best two-year resume at his position in college football history. There are real reasons to believe this year's winner is already on this list.

Here are the five biggest favorites heading into the season.

CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) throws a pass during the Blue-Gold game at Notre Dame Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Carr is the frontrunner at most sportsbooks. He completed 66.6% of his passes as a redshirt freshman, threw for 2,741 yards with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions and averaged 9.4 yards per attempt, which tied for second nationally. His passer efficiency rating ranked fifth in the country.

That is a remarkable floor for a first-year starter, and it came with a supporting cast that leaned heavily on the run game. That running game is now gone. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price both left for the NFL, and Notre Dame does not return a back who started a game last season. The offense is going to funnel through Carr in a way it did not in 2025, which is exactly what Heisman voters want to see.

His receiver group is improved too, with Ohio State transfers Mylan Graham and Quincy Porter joining a healthy Jaden Greathouse.

Notre Dame's schedule sets up well. The Fighting Irish open Sept. 6 at Lambeau Field against Wisconsin on NBC in primetime, then host national runner-up Miami on Nov. 7 in what could be the game of the regular season. If Carr plays the way he did during Notre Dame's 10-game winning streak last fall, he has multiple showcase games to build his case on the biggest possible stage.

"The individual awards [are] kind of just noise," Carr said this offseason.

Arch Manning, QB, Texas

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) warms up ahead of the game against the ULM Warhawks. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Manning is the name everyone knows, and 2026 is the year the production should finally match the fame. His first season as the Texas starter was inconsistent. He threw for 3,163 yards with 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and his 61.4% completion rate and 78.0 QBR ranked outside the top 15 nationally. The Longhorns went 10-3 and finished in the Citrus Bowl, not the Playoff.

But here is the part people forget: Manning was a different quarterback over the final five games. He scored 16 touchdowns with just one turnover during that stretch, including a 376-yard, four-touchdown performance against Michigan to close the season. The raw talent was never the question. Consistency was. And Steve Sarkisian addressed the biggest issue by rebuilding the skill positions around him.

Auburn transfer Cam Coleman is the headline addition. Coleman caught 93 passes for 1,306 yards and 13 touchdowns across two seasons at Auburn and was the No. 1 receiver in the transfer portal. Manning has already noticed the difference. "He always wants to throw," Manning said at SEC Media Days. "He always wants to meet extra."

Sarkisian has deflected the pressure away from his quarterback all offseason. "Arch Manning a year ago wasn't on social media or television saying he was going to be the No. 1 pick in the draft," Sarkisian said. "He wasn't on television saying he was going to win the Heisman Trophy. All he did was work really hard."

Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss

No one on this list took a stranger path to Heisman contention. Chambliss spent four years at Division II Ferris State, won a D-II national championship in 2024, then transferred to Ole Miss and threw for an SEC-best 3,937 yards, 22 touchdowns and three interceptions in his first Power Four season. He added 527 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, finished eighth in Heisman voting and led the Rebels to a program-record 13 wins and a CFP semifinal appearance.

Getting back on the field required a courtroom. The NCAA denied Chambliss' request for a medical redshirt covering his missed 2022 season at Ferris State, so he sued. A Mississippi judge ruled the NCAA "acted in bad faith," and the Mississippi Supreme Court denied the NCAA's appeal in March. Ole Miss has since launched a full Heisman campaign for him, complete with yard signs and bumper stickers for fans.

The concern with Chambliss is the roster around him. Ole Miss lost head coach Lane Kiffin to LSU during the postseason, and the receiver room has been completely rebuilt with Syracuse transfers Johntay Cook II and Darrell Gill, along with Auburn's Horatio Fields.

First-year head coach Pete Golding is running things now. There are a lot of new pieces. If they gel quickly, Chambliss has the arm talent and the story to win the award. If they don't, the numbers from 2025 will be hard to replicate.

Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore walks off the field following the Ducks annual spring game. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Moore turned down a projected top-five draft selection and an estimated $50 million in guaranteed money to return to Oregon. That alone tells you what kind of competitor he is. "Of course there was $50 million on the line, a lot to help support my family, but at the end of the day, I don't play the game for money," Moore told The Athletic. "I play the game to tell myself I've got a lot to improve."

In his first full season as a starter, Moore threw for 3,565 yards with 30 touchdowns, completed nearly 72% of his passes and led the Ducks to a 13-2 record. The issue was turnovers. He threw 10 interceptions on the year, including a rough three-turnover game against Indiana in the CFP semifinal. Cleaning that up is the difference between a good season and a Heisman-winning one.

The biggest question mark is a coaching change. Offensive coordinator Will Stein left to become head coach at Kentucky, and Oregon promoted Drew Mehringer from within to replace him. Mehringer has been on Dan Lanning's staff since 2022 and has a strong relationship with Moore, but calling plays in a new system during a national title push is a different challenge.

Moore was voted the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year runner-up, and Oregon has sent a quarterback to New York as a Heisman finalist in two of the last three years with Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel. The Ducks' signal-caller is next in that line if the transition goes smoothly.

Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Brandon Inniss (1) celebrates a touchdown by wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) during the Cotton Bowl. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Smith is the best argument against the Heisman being a quarterback award, and he knows it. "I feel like it's always a quarterback award, unless you have a crazy season like DeVonta Smith," the Ohio State star said. No receiver before DeVonta Smith had won it since Desmond Howard in 1991.

The numbers say Smith belongs in the conversation regardless. He has 163 career receptions for 2,558 yards and 27 touchdowns across two seasons, with back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns and a pair of Big Ten Receiver of the Year awards. He was a unanimous All-American in 2025 and finished sixth in Heisman voting. The Big Ten media voted him Preseason Player of the Year over Dante Moore and his own quarterback, Julian Sayin.

Smith confirmed at Big Ten Media Days that 2026 will be his final college season. "I know, but I think it's time," he said when reminded he could play two more years. He also revealed he turned down a $10 million offer to enter the transfer portal but never considered leaving Columbus.

Ohio State lost 11 players to the NFL Draft, which means Smith will see more defensive attention than ever. The volume will be there because the Buckeyes need him to carry the offense. Whether that is enough for voters to look past the position and give it to a receiver for only the fourth time in 90 years is a different question entirely. If anyone can force the issue, it is Smith.

2026 Heisman Trophy prediction

Give me Arch Manning. I know his 2025 numbers were not overwhelming, and I know the preseason favorite almost never wins. But Manning's late-season surge was the most encouraging stretch any returning Heisman contender produced last year, and the roster upgrades Texas made this offseason are significant.

Coleman gives him a true No. 1 receiver, and Sarkisian's offensive line should be among the most improved in the SEC. If the Longhorns beat Ohio State at home in Week 2, Manning will have the signature win, the platform and the supporting cast to ride the wave all the way to New York.

The most famous name in the sport is finally set up for the season to match.