$5.3 million QB predicted to be No. 1 pick if only he would declare for the NFL draft

A college quarterback drew massive praise from an NFL analyst who claims he would be the draft's top choice.

This talented 21-year-old signal-caller is returning to his college football program in 2026, but one ESPN analyst believes the redshirt sophomore would be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft if he were to declare. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

A prominent collegiate quarterback, holding a massive $5.3 million NIL valuation per On3, receives praise as the undisputed top talent in the upcoming draft class, if only he were available to join the professional ranks. Experts believe this redshirt sophomore possesses the physical tools and mental fortitude to dominate professionally right now.

One NFL analyst views the young passer as a throwback talent who benefits from modern training and exceptional football intelligence. This observer argued on national radio that the signal-caller would be the runaway first overall selection if he chose to leave school.

The quarterback proved his mettle by overcoming significant adversity throughout a turbulent 2025 campaign. He silenced early-season boos and intense media scrutiny to lead his team to a bowl victory while demonstrating the resilience scouts covet.

Dan Orlovsky believes Arch Manning is the clear top prospect despite his decision to return to Texas

ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky appeared on The Dan Patrick Show this week to heap praise on Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. Orlovsky emphatically stated that Manning would be the "runaway No. 1 pick" in the NFL Draft if he had not already announced his return to school.

"Arch Manning is kind of like the throwback 1970s quarterback with modern-day training and nutrition," Orlovsky said. "I'm a huge fan of this guy. He's physically remarkably gifted. He's intelligent when it comes to the football understanding of speed and space, all that. I think he's wired the right way."

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) endured intense media scrutiny to start the season but finished strong with key wins against Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Michigan. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

This evaluation centers on how Manning responded to a season filled with steep challenges and harsh criticism. The young quarterback weathered a storm that included a loss to Ohio State and boos from his own fans during a rocky performance against UTEP.

The narrative turned particularly negative when The New York Times ran a headline questioning if he was college football's "first flop" following a rough outing against Florida. Manning responded to that noise by completing 21 of 27 passes in a dominant upset victory over rival Oklahoma the very next week.

.@danorlovsky7 says Arch Manning would be the "runaway #1 pick" if he declared for the 2026 NFL Draft 👀 pic.twitter.com/HIAxqIZbwD

— Dan Patrick Show (@dpshow) January 7, 2026

His resilience surfaced again during a comeback win at Mississippi State, where he erased a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Orlovsky points to these moments of getting punched and getting back up as proof that Manning possesses the elite traits necessary for the next level.

Manning finished the regular season with 24 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions while adding eight scores on the ground. He capped the year by accounting for two touchdowns in a 41-27 victory over Michigan in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl on December 31.