$5.3 million QB viewed as No. 1 quarterback prospect after returning to college football

A quarterback of a major college football program is considered the best prospect at the position in the 2027 NFL draft after deciding to stay in college.

Dec 31, 2025; Orlando, FL, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) dives forward over Michigan Wolverines defensive back Jordan Young (14) during the second half at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The 2026 NFL draft will take place in the shadows of Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, from April 23 to April 25.

A dominant discussion surrounding each NFL draft involves the quarterback class, particularly which teams are likely to draft quarterbacks and which quarterbacks will come off the board early. There are a handful of teams in the 2026 NFL draft that could eye quarterbacks in the first round, three of which have the first three picks in the draft.

A major shift in quarterback projections occurred on Wednesday, when Oregon starter Dante Moore decided to remain in college rather than declare for the 2026 NFL draft. Moore was widely considered the No. 2 quarterback in the upcoming class behind Indiana starter Fernando Mendoza.

While Moore has decided to remain in college, he is not guaranteed to be the No. 1 quarterback prospect in the 2027 NFL draft class. A momentous end to the 2025 season has many across the college football media landscape giving Texas starter Arch Manning attention as one of the best quarterbacks in the sport once again.

Matt Miller of ESPN unveiled early projections for each position in the 2027 NFL draft class. Miller ranked Manning as the No. 1 quarterback prospect in his projections.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) throws a pass during the first half against the Arkansas Razorbacks | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

"The 6-foot-4, 220-pounder has impressive physical tools and overcame some early-season processing bumps. He can dial up velocity on his throws or layer the deep ball over the top, while also showing the strength and agility to be an effective runner," Miller wrote. "He'll be regarded as the No. 1 quarterback prospect and perhaps the No. 1 overall player."

Manning was recruited to Texas as part of Steve Sarkisian's 2023 signing class. He used a redshirt and only saw the field in a blowout victory against Texas Tech and the final seconds of the Big 12 Championship. He completed two of five pass attempts for 30 yards while rushing for seven yards against the Red Raiders on Nov. 24, 2023.

The Longhorns started Manning in two games while Quinn Ewers was sidelined with an injury in 2024, although they often featured Manning in run packages later in the year. In total, Manning completed 61 of 90 passes for 939 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions while running for 108 yards and four touchdowns.

2025 was Manning's first full season as the starting quarterback. Despite the up and down start, he finished the year with 3,163 pass yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions to go with 399 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground en route to a 10-3 record.

Texas overhauled much of Manning's supporting cast in 2025 to retool the offense for next season. Some notable additions to the Longhorns from the portal include former Oklahoma and NC State running back Hollywood Smothers and former Auburn wide receiver Cam Coleman.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) rushes with the ball for a touchdown against the Michigan Wolverines | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images