David Pollack puts SEC powerhouse on upset alert in Week 9

Mississippi State’s home crowd and steady improvement have one analyst predicting Texas could be in trouble this week.

College football analyst David Pollack put the Texas Longhorns on upset alert against Mississippi State this weekend. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The conversation on See Ball Get Ball turned to potential upsets in Week 9, and David Pollack didn’t hesitate to call his shot. The longtime college football analyst circled No. 22 Texas as the team most at risk of an upset, pointing to a dangerous matchup on the road against Mississippi State. For Pollack, the combination of a volatile Texas offense, an improving Bulldogs team, and a raucous Starkville atmosphere made this one his “upset alert game of the week.”

Texas has been inconsistent in its first SEC season, surviving close calls against Kentucky and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has quietly built momentum, competing in every conference game despite a winless SEC record. With a veteran quarterback in Blake Shapen and a home crowd famous for its relentless cowbells, Pollack believes the Bulldogs have all the ingredients to spring a surprise on Saturday.

“It’s Texas,” Pollack said. “I think that’s very much upset alert type game of the week.”

He expanded on why, saying Texas’ offensive rhythm has stalled. “Oklahoma was solid — that was a solid performance — but you scored on special teams, your defense played lights out forcing turnovers. And then Kentucky last week, they very easily could have lost.” He also noted that the Longhorns might be distracted. “Obviously, Texas has got some games coming up where they’re probably a little bit more focused on than they are Mississippi State.”

Pollack praised the Bulldogs’ growth, saying, “They were a doormat a year ago, and they are now doing a great job of competing in every single game they’re in. Every game they’re in, they’re competitive. They’re going to get one. And if there is one, it’s this week. It’s Texas.”

Mississippi State’s Growth and Texas’ Concerns

Statistically, Mississippi State looks more capable than its record shows. The Bulldogs average 31.9 points per game and allow just 20.3, a significant defensive improvement from last season. Their offense, led by Shapen and receiver Brenen Thompson, ranks 58th nationally in total yardage and has found success through balance. Texas, on the other hand, is struggling offensively, averaging just 368.1 yards per game (81st in the FBS) and converting less than 40% of its third downs.

The matchup also highlights Texas’ challenge in establishing rhythm. Quarterback Arch Manning threw for just 132 yards last week, and running back Quintrevion Wisner managed only 37 yards on the ground. The return of CJ Baxter could spark the run game, but the Longhorns’ offense has looked flat in back-to-back weeks. Defensively, they’re elite, allowing 11.3 points per game, but long field-time possessions by Mississippi State could test that endurance.

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen (2) has 1,525 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Mississippi State’s defense ranks among the top 40 in third-down efficiency and top 30 against the pass, a key factor against Manning’s passing struggles. If the Bulldogs can maintain time of possession and limit turnovers, they could capitalize on an overconfident Texas team and finally secure their first SEC win under Jeff Lebby.

The Texas Longhorns will travel to Starkville to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday at 4:15 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.