ESPN's FPI gives powerhouse program no chance of making the CFP

The season is only halfway complete, but ESPN's FPI numbers are already counting out a powerhouse program from the College Football Playoff. After Week 7, the FPI analytics give Florida State a 0.0% chance at making the College Football Playoff. The 3-3 Seminoles are in the ACC, which is far from guaranteed to get a second team in the CFP. With a three-game deficit on Miami, ESPN says you can pull the plug on FSU's CFP shot.

FSU's FPI struggles

To be fair, off a 2-10 season in 2024, ESPN wasn't exceptionally devoted to the Seminoles anyway, giving them just a 0.4% chance in the preseason to reach the CFP. After FSU's Week 1 upset of Alabama, ESPN jumped the 'Noles to a 7.6% shot at the Playoff.

Even heading into Week 7, the 3-2 Florida State squad still had a 4.8% chance at making the Playoff. But a 34-31 loss to Pittsburgh dropped Florida State from the AP top 25 and dropped the hammer on Florida State's remaining Playoff shot.

The Seminoles are, of course, far from the only traditional power in a similar position. Clemson is rated at a 0.2% shot at the Playoff and Penn State is sitting at 0.1%. Wisconsin is among several other power conference teams that also have a 0.0% Playoff chance.

The reasons for FSU's slide and the ACC's CFP shot

After a 3-0 start saw the Seminoles rise as high as No. 7 in the AP top 25, FSU has now dropped three games in a row. Florida State still remains fifth nationally in rushing yardage, racking up an average of 274.5 yards per game. FSU lost the three consecutive games by a total of 17 points, but the fact of close losses obviously doesn't impress the FPI metrics.

That said, Miami remains the only ACC team that FPI gives much of a Playoff chance. Georgia Tech is second in the league in CFP possibility at an 18.8% chance. For comparison, there are 10 SEC teams with better CFP odds. But then, the entire SEC except for Arkansas and Kentucky has a better CFP shot than the Seminoles.