Greg McElroy Delivers Blunt Verdict on Big 12's National Championship Chances

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy took a hard look at the Big 12 heading into 2026, and he came away with nobody at the top.

On his Always College Football podcast, McElroy broke the conference into tiers and left the first tier empty.

"I don't know at this point if there's someone in this conference that can go and win the national championship," McElroy said. "That's the honest truth about a league that I think is a lot deeper than it is superstar-studded at the very top."

Considering four programs changed head coaches, the conference is working at a disadvantage. Mike Gundy, Kyle Whittingham, Chris Klieman and Matt Campbell left with close to 560 combined wins between them. Gundy didn't manage to even finish the 2025 season, getting fired before the calendar even reached October.

Whittingham stepped down after 21 seasons at Utah and resurfaced almost immediately at Michigan. Klieman retired after watching Kansas State blow a 12-point lead in Salt Lake City. Campbell, who had turned down job offers for a decade, finally left Iowa State for Penn State.

"That's an entire generation of institutional memory getting loaded onto a truck and driven out of the league," McElroy said.

Why the Big 12 tiers begin at Tier 2

Texas Tech's quarterback room changed just this offseason. Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby had been expected to take over as the starter this season. That plan fell apart because of a gambling scandal, and Sorsby is no longer with the program. Will Hammond, who threw for 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns in relief last season, now heads into the year as the presumed starter while he finishes recovering from a knee injury.

McElroy's case against the Big 12 isn't really about any one team. It's about the gap between the Big 12 and the two conferences at the top of the sport.

"The Big Ten has won three consecutive national championships," McElroy said. "The SEC reloads every August like it's restocking a vending machine."

Texas Tech enters the season as the Big 12's clear favorite to win the national title. ESPN's Football Power Index has Texas Tech at a 45.9% chance to win the Big 12 outright, with BYU the only other team above 10%. Everyone else in the conference is bunched well behind those two.

McElroy doesn't expect the conference's automatic playoff qualifier to go on a run. "That team is going to be super dangerous," McElroy said. "And that team is based on last year going to struggle in Round 1 or Round 2, whatever round they end up making it into."

History backs him up there too because The Big 12 is the only Power Four conference that hasn't produced a national champion since the four-team playoff era started in 2014. The Big Ten has four titles in that span, the SEC has six, and the ACC has two.

Chances Texas Tech or BYU can win the Big 12

Texas Tech got a firsthand look at that gap last season, entering the Orange Bowl as a top-five playoff seed and getting shut out 23-0 by Oregon in the quarterfinals.

Those sorts of losses are why McElroy's tier two, the group he considers capable of reaching the playoff, is so crowded. Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Houston all land there.

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier, defensive lineman Keanu Tanuvasa — BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier (left) and defensive lineman Keanu Tanuvasa hope to give the Cougars their first conference title since 2007, back when the program was part of the Mountain West. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

BYU brings back most of a team that reached last year's Big 12 title game and added transfer linebacker Cade Uluave. Utah is leaning on quarterback Devon Dampier behind a rebuilt offensive line. Houston is banking on Conner Weigman to prove last year's 10 wins weren't mostly the product of close games going its way.

Athlon Sports lists Texas Tech, Utah and Houston as the only Big 12 teams with a projected win total of 8.5 or higher, and CBS Sports' preseason picks put those three, plus BYU, ahead of the rest of the conference.

Nobody is arguing with McElroy about which Big 12 teams are good. It just doesn't seem likely the conference has a team that can win it all this year.

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