Greg McElroy puts top 25 college football team on upset alert in Week 1

Greg McElroy has his eyes on Boise State vs USF.

Jan 6, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; ESPN analyst Greg McElroy talks to the media during media day before the College Football Playoff national championship game against the Michigan Wolverines at George R Brown Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Greg McElroy put Boise State on "upset alert" heading into Thursday’s opener at South Florida, cautioning the Mountain West favorite about a tricky cross-country spot against an athletic Bulls team. McElroy, on Always College Football, noted the 5:30 p.m. ET kick, the travel and a USF roster that "will throw their best punch."

There’s substance behind the siren. No. 25 Boise State is a road favorite (consensus around 5.5–6.5), but this is the first meeting between these programs, it leads off Week 1 on ESPN, and Raymond James Stadium is expected to be humid and loud.

The Broncos arrive with heavyweight expectations even after losing superstar RB Ashton Jeanty to the NFL. Last fall, Boise reached the 12-team College Football Playoff as the No. 3 seed, then fell to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal.

Boise State Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen (4) | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

"You'd be hard-pressed to find a more consistent winner at any level, by the way, than Boise State," McElroy said. "They've been amazing, but I think this game this weekend, 5:30 Eastern time kick from Tampa, Florida, to take on the South Florida Bulls. Right now, Boise is about a 6.5 point favorite... to see a line this close, to see a team that's traveling three time zones, to go and to think that they're going to face off against a South Florida Bulls team that's extremely athletic, that has gone toe-to-toe multiple times in the last couple years against power five competition.

"Something tells me that Alex Golish, the head coach of South Florida, knows how big this opportunity might be. This would be a statement opportunity for the Bulls. They've had this one circled. I would imagine this has been the talk all off-season."

Key matchups

With Jeanty gone, redshirt freshman Sire Gaines (on the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year watch list) and Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod headline a committee behind an experienced line anchored by LT Kage Casey and C Mason Randolph. USF DC Todd Orlando believes his defensive line is "longer and heavier" and aims for an eight-man rotation — exactly the depth you want when chasing an outside-zone team in August heat.

Junior quarterback Maddux Madsen is back as QB1 for the Broncos, working with veteran WR Latrell Caples, A&M/Marshall transfer Chris Marshall, and Mackey Award watch-listed TE Matt Lauter. That group meets a South Florida secondary that's still sorting rotations. Limiting Boise’s play-action shots, particularly seams to Lauter, is priority No. 1 for Orlando’s pressure-heavy defense.

Byrum Brown’s return changes USF’s ceiling. The Bulls get their dual-threat quarterback back from last year’s September leg injury. Brown gets help from a veteran offensive line (returning starters Cole Best, Zane Herring, Derek Bowman) and a remade receiver room featuring Tennessee transfer Chas Nimrod, Stanford’s Mudia Reuben and Minnesota/Georgia transfer Tyler Williams. If USF protects Brown and stays ahead of the chains, Brown’s RPO game can stress Boise’s linebackers.

"Boise better be ready to go when they kick things off at 5:30 there locally because South Florida, I can promise you, they will have and throw their best punch in this matchup."

Greg McElroy

USF has stacked back-to-back winning seasons under Alex Golesh and opens what is one of the most challenging first three weeks in all of college football — Boise State, at Florida, at Miami — so the urgency will be sky-high. Meanwhile, Boise’s own leap last year (12–2, MWC title, CFP berth) puts a target on the Broncos from the opening snap. A statement opportunity is exactly how this one feels for the Bulls.