Greg McElroy Says One Game Will Decide Notre Dame's College Football Playoff Fate

Notre Dame’s seven wins came against teams with a combined 21-36 record, leaving the No. 1 Hurricanes as the only ranked opponent left on the Irish schedule.

Helmet worn by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish before a game against the Brigham Young Cougars | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff résumé comes down to Saturday’s home game against No. 1 Miami, according to ESPN analyst Greg McElroy, who believes a loss could drop the Fighting Irish onto the bubble.

The 7-1 Irish haven’t beaten a ranked opponent, and their only game against one ended in a four-point loss at BYU. McElroy made the case on his “Always College Football” podcast after Notre Dame beat Navy 35-13.

Why does Miami matter so much?

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Notre Dame’s wins have come against Wisconsin at a neutral site, Rice, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina, Stanford and Navy. Several of those results lost value last weekend, when Wisconsin got shut out 30-0 at Iowa and SMU lost at Syracuse with a game against the Irish still ahead on Nov. 21.

“The seven teams they’ve beaten are a combined 21-36 right now,” McElroy said.

Boston College, SMU and Syracuse close out the regular season, and McElroy doesn’t see a résumé builder in that group.

“After that, Boston College can’t help you. SMU can’t help you now after the loss this past weekend, and I don’t think Syracuse can help you, either,” he said.

So the Miami game carries the full weight of Notre Dame’s case heading into the first College Football Playoff rankings and the five weeks that follow.

“This win is the whole résumé. You lose it, and then you’re a two-loss team with not a lot to show for it, and you might be sitting there around 12, 13, 14, and you might be at the mercy of what happens in other places,” McElroy said.

Notre Dame’s passing game plan

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) looks to pass against the Brigham Young Cougars | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Notre Dame leaned on the run against Navy, with Nolan James Jr. scoring on runs of 52 and 23 yards and finishing with 107 yards on nine carries. McElroy doesn’t think that approach will beat Miami.

“The only way Notre Dame’s winning that game next week is not by running for 300,” McElroy said. “They’re going to throw for 300.”

That puts the game on CJ Carr, who threw for 210 yards and two touchdowns against Navy. McElroy views the Irish quarterback as the most dependable piece of the offense, especially with the offensive line and running backs playing inconsistently.

“I still think CJ Carr is their best player. I still think the passing game is their best offensive attribute,” he said. “I trust Carr to make the correct decision every time he drops back.”

Can Miami fix its secondary?

Miami Hurricanes defensive back JJ Dunnigan (25) celebrates after recovering a fumble against the Central Michigan Chippewas | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Miami is 8-0, but its pass defense nearly cost it at North Carolina. Billy Edwards Jr. completed 28 of 34 passes for 341 yards and four touchdowns in the Hurricanes’ 38-35 win, and Mario Cristobal didn’t hide from the problems afterward.

“I thought there were some soft spots in our coverage where our zone drops weren’t as good, as detailed,” Cristobal said.

Edge rusher Marquise Lightfoot, whose strip-sack of Edwards set up Miami’s final touchdown, pointed to communication breakdowns in a back end thinned by injuries. McElroy sees that as the matchup that decides Saturday.

“They need to have some answers in the back end defensively because if there’s one thing we know, it’s that Notre Dame’s got a very capable quarterback and they have very good personnel at wide receiver,” McElroy said.

Miami won the 2025 season opener 27-24, and that result helped the Hurricanes claim a playoff spot over the Irish. No. 1 Miami and No. 4 Notre Dame kick off Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock at Notre Dame Stadium.