Greg McElroy Names Top 12 Teams Ahead of First College Football Playoff Rankings

The ESPN analyst’s projected top 12 slots unbeaten UCLA at No. 10 and leaves AP No. 6 Indiana behind a Buckeyes team playing without Julian Sayin.

College football analyst Greg McElroy | ESPN College Football/YouTube

Greg McElroy’s projected College Football Playoff rankings slot two-loss Ohio State ahead of one-loss Indiana and put two-loss Texas in the top five, an order that tests how much the selection committee values quality wins over records.

The ESPN analyst laid out his top 12 on the “Always College Football” podcast ahead of the committee’s first release, with Miami at No. 1, Georgia at No. 2 and unbeaten UCLA, No. 5 in the AP Top 25, sitting at No. 10.

Why is Texas ahead of Kentucky?

McElroy put 6-2 Texas at No. 5 and 7-1 Kentucky at No. 6, flipping the AP Top 25, where the Wildcats sit at No. 8 and the Longhorns are No. 10.

The case for Texas rests on who it’s beaten. The Longhorns erased a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Ohio State 24-23 in Austin, won at Tennessee and beat Ole Miss. Both of their losses, to Oklahoma in Dallas and to Florida, were close games.

“It’s the only team in our top 12 that has beaten two other teams in our top 12,” McElroy said. “On their best day, they have clearly proven to be able to go with anybody.”

Kentucky has a strong résumé of its own in Year 1 under Will Stein, with road wins at Texas A&M, South Carolina and Oklahoma, plus a home win over LSU. But a 28-point home loss to Alabama keeps the Wildcats a spot behind Texas.

“It’s the 28-point loss to Alabama that’s kind of the drag right now,” McElroy said.

Ohio State over Indiana

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day motions during the NCAA football game against the USC Trojans | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The more surprising call puts 6-2 Ohio State at No. 7, one spot ahead of 8-1 Indiana, even after the Buckeyes fell 30-18 at USC on Saturday. The AP poll went the other way, dropping Ohio State to No. 11 while Indiana sits at No. 6.

McElroy leaned on head-to-head results and scheduling. Ohio State beat Indiana 19-15 in Bloomington on Oct. 17 and also won at Iowa, a victory that looks better after the Hawkeyes shut out Wisconsin 30-0. The Buckeyes’ two losses came by one point at Texas and at USC.

“Their only loss is by four to Ohio State, which is why Ohio State sits right in front of Indiana right now, even with one extra loss, because Ohio State actually challenged themselves in the nonconference,” McElroy said.

Indiana hasn’t helped its own case. Nick Saban predicted the Hoosiers would start showing their true colors against Minnesota, but they needed overtime to win 23-16, their second straight overtime win after beating Michigan the week before.

“The eye test doesn’t look very good, but they’re finding a way to win,” McElroy said.

How does Sayin’s injury factor in?

Injured Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin arrives with the team prior to the game against USC Trojans | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Julian Sayin has been out indefinitely since injuring his throwing arm in the win at Indiana, and freshman Luke Fahey made his first career start at USC. McElroy thinks that could weigh on the committee.

“How does the committee view Ohio State with Julian Sayin? Without Julian Sayin? Does that affect their ranking?” McElroy said. “Because we have in the past seen teams get penalized when they are not at 100% from a health standpoint, especially at the quarterback spot.”

The committee has done it before. In 2023, 13-0 Florida State was left out of the four-team field after quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending leg injury, and committee chair Boo Corrigan said the Seminoles were a different team without him.

McElroy still has Ohio State in the field because of its road wins.

“I think they’re going to be in the top 12 on Tuesday. I think they’ll be in the field in December,” he said.

Greg McElroy’s projected top 12

UCLA Bruins head coach Bob Chesney looks on during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

UCLA is the other team whose placement stands out. The Bruins are 8-0 for the first time since 2005 under first-year coach Bob Chesney, with wins at Oregon and over Wisconsin, but McElroy ranked them behind one-loss Notre Dame because the Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin by 28 at a neutral site while UCLA beat the Badgers by 10 at home.

“Where is UCLA, who’s undefeated but hasn’t really played anybody?” McElroy said.

1. Miami (8-0)
2. Georgia (7-1)
3. Utah (8-0)
4. BYU (7-1)
5. Texas (6-2)
6. Kentucky (7-1)
7. Ohio State (6-2)
8. Indiana (8-1)
9. Notre Dame (7-1)
10. UCLA (8-0)
11. Ole Miss (6-2)
12. Alabama (6-2)

The committee releases its first rankings Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, and McElroy will be part of the network’s rankings show from Bristol, Conn.