Jon Gruden predicts upset in first round of College Football Playoff

Jon Gruden has predicted an upset in the first round of the 2025 College Football Playoff

Jon Gruden watches practice during training camp at Meijer Performance Center in Allen Park on Monday, July 28, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The 2025 College Football Playoff is underway. No. 9 Alabama (11-3, 7-1) defeated Oklahoma (10-3, 6-2) 34-24 at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium to advance to the Rose Bowl, where it will face No. 1 Indiana (12-0, 9-0).

The remaining three first-round College Football Playoff matchups will be played on Saturday. The first of the three matchups is between No. 10 Miami (10-2, 6-2) and No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1, 7-1) at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas (Noon EST, ABC and ESPN).

Ahead of the first Saturday matchup, former NFL head coach and Barstool content creator Jon Gruden released a bold prediction for what he expects to play out between the Aggies and Hurricanes.

Here's @jakemalasek and my predictions for what should be an AWESOME game between Miaimi and Texas A&M.

Let us know who you are taking! pic.twitter.com/8GCWcBzzfq

— Jon Gruden (@BarstoolGruden) December 20, 2025

"Kyle Field is one of the toughest places to play. They're 7-0 there for a reason, I mean these fans are nuts, and it's loud," Gruden said. "But I'm going to go with the Miami Hurricanes. I feel real strong that this team could win the national championship.

"If they stay away from the interceptions and Beck plays to his capability, they have a good enough defense and a good enough kicker to go all the way. I have not seen a defense play this hard this fast this year. I'm going with the Canes, 33-21."

The Hurricanes' defense has given many a reason to predict a first-round upset in Kyle Field. CBS Sports has issued multiple projections in the week leading up to the matchup in favor of Miami.

Gruden climbed the coaching ladder by working as an offensive assistant both in college football and the NFL. Previous NFL stops before Gruden's first head coaching job include the 49ers, Packers and Eagles.

Gruden's first head coaching job was with the Oakland Raiders in 1998. The Raiders were 8-8 in his first two seasons, but he guided them to the playoffs in each of his last two seasons.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded draft picks away to the Raiders for Gruden in the 2002 offseason. All was well for the Buccaneers in the 2002 season, as they ironically defeated the Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII. Gruden coached Tampa Bay through the 2008 season before the Buccaneers decided to move on from him the following offseason.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Jon Gruden raises the Vince Lombardi Trophy | MPS-Imagn Images

After a prolonged tenure as an analyst on ESPN's Monday Night Football, he again coached the Raiders from 2018-2021. He was 22-31 in the stint before he was abruptly fired in the midst of the 2021 season.

Two more games will follow the Aggies and Hurricanes on Saturday, both on TNT. No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1, 7-1) will host No. 11 Tulane (11-2, 7-1) at 3:30 p.m. EST, and No. 5 Oregon (11-1, 8-1) will host No. 12 James Madison (12-1, 8-0) at 7:30 p.m. EST.