Josh Pate delivers firm verdict on Billy Napier’s Florida future amid firing rumors

Josh Pate says Florida is preparing to fire Billy Napier as frustration builds among boosters and leadership.

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier is rumored to be nearing the end of his tenure. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Update: The University of Florida fired Billy Napier on Sunday.

The pressure surrounding Florida head coach Billy Napier has reached a breaking point, and one of college football’s most prominent analysts believes the end is near. During his College Football Show podcast this week, Josh Pate shared that conversations within the Florida program suggest a change is imminent. The speculation follows a string of disappointing performances and growing frustration among influential boosters who helped bankroll Napier’s roster overhaul.

Reports surfaced that Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin met with key boosters Tuesday, who warned continued financial backing depends on a new direction for the football program. While university officials denied financial threats were discussed, multiple sources confirmed the group’s dissatisfaction with the Gators’ regression. With losses mounting and no signs of offensive progress, the conversation has shifted from whether Napier can turn things around to when his tenure will end.

Pate, citing those close to the program, said the situation appears all but decided. “How much gas was in the tank for Florida was what I wondered. Not enough. I think Napier is likely out,” Pate said. “That’s not my opinion. That’s talking to people around Florida today. I think Billy Napier is going to be out. It may be after this upcoming game and they’ve got a bye, but I do believe that he’s going to be out and I do believe the Florida job is going to come open.”

He added that while he has personal respect for Napier, the business realities are unavoidable. “It’s a bottom-line business, and the bottom line there is it has not been good enough, so I understand it,” Pate said.

Florida’s Decline and the Breaking Point for Napier

Florida’s slide began early this season with a stunning home loss to South Florida, a Group of Five opponent that entered Gainesville as an 18-point underdog. Since then, the Gators have been beaten soundly by LSU, Miami, and Texas A&M, with a single upset win over Texas offering brief relief before another road defeat. Napier’s record now stands at 21-23, giving him the program’s lowest winning percentage since the 1940s.

Behind the scenes, patience has evaporated. The same boosters who nearly funded his $28 million buyout last season agreed to redirect that money toward recruiting and NIL deals instead. The investment helped Florida flip five-star wide receiver Dallas Wilson from Oregon and retain several key players, but on-field results have failed to justify the expense.

Full comments from @JoshPateCFB on the likely impending Billy Napier firing. pic.twitter.com/nO8Ia6LoqZ

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Napier’s refusal to hire a full-time offensive coordinator, despite the boosters’ request, has only deepened tensions. His attempted pursuit of Ole Miss play-caller Charlie Weis Jr. fell through, and he never made another serious effort to fill the role.

Florida’s current buyout for Napier is roughly $21 million, payable over several years, a smaller figure compared to other major coaching firings this season. USA Today Sports reported that the hope within the athletic department is for Napier to finish the season, but his future beyond that appears sealed. If he departs, defensive coordinator Ron Roberts would be the only staff member with prior head coaching experience to step in on an interim basis.

Why Florida Could Soon Join the Coaching Carousel

If Florida fires Napier after Saturday’s game against Mississippi State, the Gators would become the fifth major program to enter the 2025 coaching carousel, joining Penn State, which recently dismissed James Franklin. The Florida job remains one of the sport’s premier opportunities, backed by elite recruiting resources and unmatched exposure in the SEC. However, it also carries immense pressure to win immediately, something Napier could not deliver in four seasons.

Pate’s remarks mirror what many inside the sport have quietly acknowledged for weeks: that Napier’s tenure is effectively over. The parallels to last year’s near dismissal underscore how little progress has been made despite financial and institutional support. Former athletic director Jeremy Foley’s famous line, “What must be done eventually should be done immediately,” now echoes loudly around Gainesville.

Florida head coach Billy Napier could be coaching his final game with the Gators this weekend against Mississippi State. | Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Speculation has already turned toward potential replacements. ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg recently mentioned Lane Kiffin, Eli Drinkwitz, and Franklin as possible candidates, with Franklin’s experience in the SEC and ties to Florida making him an intriguing option. Whoever takes over will inherit a roster with top-end talent but a fractured confidence after years of inconsistency.

For now, Napier remains on the sideline, facing what may be his final game with the program. The Florida Gators will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday before entering a bye week that could mark the start of another coaching search in Gainesville.