Josh Pate explains how Lane Kiffin’s exit could impact College Football Playoff hopes for Ole Miss

Josh Pate warns the playoff committee may penalize Ole Miss following Lane Kiffin’s departure for LSU.

There is precedent that Lane Kiffin's departure from the Ole Miss Rebels could hurt the program's standing in the College Football Playoff. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

On Monday, college football analyst Josh Pate joined a panel on ESPN's Get Up to discuss the significant aftermath of the drama surrounding former Ole Miss Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin. Kiffin recently departed Oxford to accept the head coaching position with the LSU Tigers.

This sudden move has created a chaotic situation for a team that finished the regular season with a historic 11-1 record. Pate explained the College Football Playoff selection committee could penalize the Rebels following the coaching change.

The television discussion centered on how the committee views team availability and roster value when key figures are absent. Pate noted that the committee has established precedents for re-evaluating teams when specific personnel are no longer available for the postseason.

This conversation mirrors previous controversial debates about player injuries affecting playoff eligibility. The college football analyst pointed out that specific criteria allow the committee to judge the value of a departing coach just as they would a star quarterback.

Kiffin left the program after leading the Rebels to their best regular season performance in post-integration history. His decision to join a Southeastern Conference rival creates a unique dilemma for the selection committee members meeting in Grapevine, Texas.

They must now decide if the Rebels remain the same caliber of team without the architect of their offense on the sidelines. The departure raises serious questions about how much a head coach impacts a team’s resume.

Committee Criteria Could Alter Playoff Seeding

Pate highlighted the specific language the committee uses to justify its rankings and seeding decisions. He drew a direct comparison to the Florida State Seminoles and quarterback Jordan Travis from the 2023 season. The committee excluded an undefeated conference champion two years ago because it determined the team was fundamentally different without its injured leader. Pate argued that this same logic now applies to the coaching staff situation in Oxford.

"Their own criteria suggests that they are allowed to basically determine the value of a player, i.e., Jordan Travis going out for the season for FSU two years ago," Pate said. "They took it upon themselves to define his value and say we're not going to put him in anymore. Well, now that same bullet point actually, if you look at the playoff criteria, says we're also allowed to define how much a coach is worth."

Two years ago, an injury to former Florida State Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis (13) derailed the program's playoff hopes. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The implication is that the committee could view the Rebels as a diminished product without Kiffin leading the charge. Pate suggested that this allows the 12 members in the room to discard the 12 games played on the field. They can instead focus on assessing how much the departed staff meant to the team's success and future viability. This subjectivity puts the Rebels in a precarious position regarding their final seeding.

"And if coaches, in this case, plural, leave, we're allowed to sort of reassess your resume," Pate added. "Forget about the 12 games you played on the field. So, forget about the players and all that. We're going to let 12 people sitting in a committee room in Grapevine, Texas, decide how much the departing people are worth."

The chaos left behind strengthens the argument for a potential downgrade in ranking. Reports indicate Kiffin potentially issued ultimatums to staff members to leave with him immediately or face exclusion in Baton Rouge.

With the departure of head coach Lane Kiffin to the LSU Tigers, Ole Miss could have its playoff standing damaged. | Barbara Gauntt/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This turmoil could result in the Rebels losing a lucrative home playoff game. The committee might send the Rebels on the road in the first round rather than hosting at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. This creates a tangible penalty for the program stemming from the specific choices of its former coach.

The Rebels will await their final postseason seeding when the College Football Playoff bracket is revealed on Sunday on ESPN.