Josh Pate Names College Football Coach Who Could Be 'Out of a Job'

Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda works the sideline during the game. | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Dave Aranda has had a rocky tenure since becoming the head coach of the Baylor Bears.

Dave Aranda's Up and Down Tenure

Aranda was named head coach before the 2020 season after a successful tenure as the defensive coordinator for the LSU Tigers, resulting in a national championship in 2019. The start of his career as head coach was rocky as the Bears went 2-7 during the Covid-shortened 2020 season.

But 2021 was a great year, and it led many to believe that Aranda was the coach who could lead them to become one of the top teams in the Big 12. That year, Baylor went 12-2, won the Big 12 championship and beat Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl.

The following season, the Bears started the season ranked No. 10 with high expectations. However, they would go 6-7. They would then go 3-9 in 2023, before bouncing back in 2024, going 8-5, likely saving Aranda's job at the time.

Hot Seat Entering 2026

The team would fall back down to below .500 in 2025, going 5-7. That led many to believe that Aranda would be let go. However, the Bears committed to him for at least one more season. The issue is if he doesn't start fast, Josh Pate believes it could be the end of his tenure.

Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda reacts on the sidelines during the second half. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

"Obviously, to me, at least obviously, if it doesn't go right early this year, I think Dave could be out of a job," Pate said. "... I think Dave Aranda is on the hot seat."

Baylor's Tough Schedule

Baylor starts the season in a neutral-site game against the Auburn Tigers. It then has two easier games before Big 12 play starts against the Colorado Buffaloes.

The Bears also face Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Texas Tech this year, all four of which have played in the last two Big 12 Championship Games.

As for Aranda, it's unclear what his buyout is since Baylor is a private institution and doesn't have to disclose that.

However, ESPN's Pete Thamel reported it was $12 million before last season. That number isn't a large number, and one that Baylor should be willing to pay.

Fast Start is Critical

The reality is that Baylor has seen enough ups and downs under Aranda to know what the program looks like when it's moving in the right direction and when it isn't.

After six seasons, patience is no longer unlimited.

If the Bears can navigate a difficult schedule and show meaningful progress early, Aranda could earn another year. If not, Baylor may finally decide it's time to move in a different direction.