Josh Pate Names Major College Football Coach Who is Playoff-or-Bust

It's now or never for USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley. No longer is he going to be given time at a powerhouse like USC to get the Trojans to the College Football Playoff.

Lincoln Riley's Strong Start

Riley is entering his fifth year as the head coach at USC. He's compiled a 35-18 record at USC. When he was hired before the 2022 season, Riley was thought to be the savior of the once-proud program. USC has been one of the best programs in the history of college football, but it hasn't been a contender in the College Football Playoff era.

Riley came to USC after going 55-10 as the head coach of the Oklahoma Sooners for five years. He won four Big 12 championships and led the Sooners to three straight College Football Playoff appearances. He was known for having some of the most electric offenses in college football.

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley stands on the sideline during the fourth quarter. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

In his first year, Riley lived up to the hype. He led the Trojans to a strong 11-3 season, made the Pac-12 Championship Game and quarterback Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy, but the team narrowly missed the College Football Playoff.

That's where there was a lot of excitement heading into Year 2. Williams returned, and USC was preseason ranked No. 6. But the Trojans went 8-5 and didn't sniff a playoff berth.

The third year was even worse, as the Trojans went 7-6. But the team responded with a strong 9-4 season. While that year showed progress, it still did not live up to the standards of USC.

Josh Pate Says Riley Facing Playoff-or-Bust Season

On "Josh Pate's College Football Show," the college football analyst said that the pressure is on Riley to make the College Football Playoff this season.

"I'd look at USC," Pate said. "I think it's really pretty cut and dry at USC this year. Either they make the playoff or they're probably looking for a new head coach... I think this is probably the first time that they've got the team that is reasonably expected to do that."

Pressure Mounting in Year 5

That's the reality of college football in this era. One day, you could look like the savior of the program, and just a few short seasons later, you are coaching with your job on the line. If Riley wants to keep his job, the objective is simple: win. Otherwise, he'll be looking for employment elsewhere, wondering if leaving Oklahoma was the right choice.

With a talented roster and rising expectations entering 2026, Riley has fewer excuses than at any point during his USC tenure. If he can finally deliver the Trojans' first College Football Playoff appearance, he'll likely silence many of his critics.

If not, Pate's prediction could become reality, and one of college football's biggest jobs may once again be searching for a head coach.

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