Josh Pate puts SEC powerhouse on upset alert in Week 8

Upset alert rises in Columbia as analyst flags Oklahoma’s turnover issues and South Carolina’s edge.

College football analyst Josh Pate believes the Oklahoma Sooners are at risk of an upset against the South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 8. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

On Thursday’s edition of his College Football Show podcast, national analyst Josh Pate warned that Oklahoma might be vulnerable to an upset when it travels to South Carolina. He said that Texas held Oklahoma to just six points last week and that quarterback John Mateer had been careless with the ball. He added that “maybe he is again this week” and confessed he was “an eight on the upset-alert concern meter.” That blunt forecast immediately turned heads given Oklahoma’s status as a top-15 program.

The context is compelling. Oklahoma (5-1) comes off a lopsided 23-6 loss to Texas, and must now play on the road against South Carolina (3-3) in Columbia—a hostile environment with strong emotional undercurrents. Pate invoked what he called a “double-desperation spot”: South Carolina is fighting to stay relevant in the SEC, and Oklahoma is attempting to rebound quickly. Pate noted South Carolina lost last week and will have its back against the wall in October, a month he labeled “Cocktober,” and argued Oklahoma faces a dangerous combination of circumstances.

Pate’s remarks are especially striking given how lopsided recent metrics seem to favor Oklahoma. But he insisted the Sooners remain vulnerable. His take injects tension into a game some assumed would be comfortable for OU. His warnings set the stage for a matchup that could surprise fans who expect Oklahoma to dominate.

Oklahoma’s Deficit Against Texas Highlights Fragility

The journey to this matchup became more fraught when Oklahoma’s weaknesses were exposed in defeat. Against Texas, Oklahoma was limited to 258 total yards. Mateer completed just 20 of 38 passes, threw three interceptions, and was under pressure throughout. The Sooners failed to find rhythm in the second half and never recovered. Oklahoma’s defense, however, continued to impress: it ranks first nationally in total defense (211.2 yards per game), second in scoring defense (9.8 points per game), and second in passing defense (126.3 yards allowed). That defensive dominance underscores why Oklahoma still commands respect despite offensive misfires.

But turnovers are a glaring vulnerability. Oklahoma has a –7 turnover margin, near the bottom among FBS teams, while South Carolina is +6, ranking eighth nationally. That speaks to a mismatch in ball security and opportunism. Oklahoma’s defense may force problems, but its offense must avoid self-inflicted damage for the team to survive the upset pressure. Pate’s warning echoes this reality: Oklahoma is talented, but not invincible.

South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers (16) has thrown for 1,010 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

This contrast is especially relevant because South Carolina’s offense has struggled. The Gamecocks average 310 yards per game (123rd in FBS), with passing at 194.7 yards per game and rushing at 115.3. They score just 22.3 points per contest (104th). Their red zone offense ranks 117th, converting on 75 percent of trips. Third-down conversions are scant, just 35.9 percent (104th). Their time of possession is among the worst, at 27:08 per game (122nd). These inefficiencies make it unlikely they will sustain long drives, putting pressure on the defense and leading to turnovers to win games.

Pate acknowledged that, saying “South Carolina is in the 100s in virtually every offensive category … it’s not an underrated offense — they’re just not good.” Even so, he suggested that a home crowd plus a modest scoring threshold of 20 points could give the Gamecocks a chance. He cited examples like LSU’s approach the prior week: “scratch out 20 points … let’s just take our odds there.”

That has become an implicit template: South Carolina may not dominate, but if they force errors and capitalize on defensive or special teams plays, the upset becomes credible.

South Carolina’s Home Crowd, Turnover Edge Create Upset Potential

This matchup matters because South Carolina desperately needs a signature win to salvage its season trajectory. At 1-3 in the SEC, the Gamecocks’ path to bowl eligibility and relevance runs through games like this one. Beating a Top 15 opponent would reshape internal momentum. Meanwhile Oklahoma must rebound quickly or risk slipping in a crowded playoff conversation. A loss would be ugly, especially given the defensive expectations.

Pate’s spin emphasizes that this contest is about more than stats. He invoked emotional and situational edges—road fatigue, desperation, momentum, and “Cocktober” timing. He said he trusts South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer more than “AI in the month of Cocktober,” a colorful way of asserting that experience might win out under pressure.

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) struggled last week against the Texas Longhorns and threw three interceptions. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If Oklahoma can recover its offensive poise and avoid turnovers, the defensive strength should carry it through. But if Mateer struggles again or the line fails to get protection, South Carolina may find just enough juice from defense and crowd energy to steal one. And it’s precisely that unpredictable margin that Pate is signaling.

Either way, this game offers a rare chance for the underdog to strike. South Carolina hosts Oklahoma on Saturday at 12:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.