Josh Pate Reveals What Might Make the Big Ten Far Tougher Than Expected

The Big Ten conference has arguably been the premier conference in college football over the past three seasons. The league has won all three national championships during that span, with three different teams, Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana, each claiming a title.

However, not every program has been able to sustain that level of success. Michigan, for example, has not replicated its championship form since winning the title in 2023. Following that season, head coach Jim Harbaugh departed for the NFL, and the program has yet to return to the College Football Playoff.

Meanwhile, Ohio State and Indiana have remained consistently strong contenders over the past two seasons and are expected to be among the top teams again in 2026. The Oregon Ducks have also emerged as a major force since joining the Big Ten prior to the 2024 season, further strengthening the conference’s reputation at the top.

Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz reacts. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

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Those programs have received the majority of the national attention, but Josh Pate outlined a “chaos scenario” on his show, "Josh Pate's College Football Show," that could dramatically shift the conference landscape. In this scenario, Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana fail to meet expectations, opening the door for a much different race.

Pate expanded on that idea by suggesting that several second- and third-tier programs could take significant steps forward. Teams such as Nebraska, Iowa, Washington, Illinois and Wisconsin all have the potential to improve and challenge the conference’s traditional powers.

"It could be that a whole bunch of the Big Ten tier 2 or tier 3 jumped up," Pate said. "Nebraska, Iowa, Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin, like those sorts of teams are just flat-out better by a few points per team than we expected them to be. Big Ten could be a bloodbath this year."

If that scenario plays out, the Big Ten could become deeper and more competitive than ever before, with fewer clear separation points between the top and middle of the conference. Instead of a few dominant teams, the league could feature multiple legitimate contenders, creating a weekly grind unlike anything seen in recent years.

That raises an important question: what would be the long-term impact of that level of competition? If the conference becomes a true gauntlet, the team that ultimately emerges on top could be battle-tested but also worn down heading into the College Football Playoff.

On one hand, that physical and mental toll could leave the Big Ten champion vulnerable against fresher opponents from other conferences, potentially ending its recent run of national titles.

On the other hand, navigating such a demanding schedule could harden that team, preparing it for postseason success in a way few others can match.

Ultimately, if this chaotic scenario unfolds, it wouldn’t just reshape the Big Ten; it could have ripple effects across the entire college football landscape in 2026.