Josh Pate Reveals Chaos Scenario That Could Topple Big Ten Giants in 2026

The 2026 college football offseason is underway as teams enter the spring portion of the calendar. This phase allows programs to focus on fundamentals, develop depth and evaluate their roster ahead of the season.

For media members, it provides an opportunity to create rankings and explore different scenarios that could unfold in the upcoming year. Josh Pate did just that on his show, "Josh Pate's College Football Show."

The first scenario he outlined is one he described as a potential “chaos scenario.” In this situation, the top of the Big Ten, Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon, fail to meet expectations for a variety of reasons.

Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti shakes hands with Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"The top of the Big 10 is just not what we think it is," Pate said. "Let's say that plays out... no one's got to fall off a cliff, but let's just say Ohio State doesn't see quarterback play elevate... Oregon's offensive line... and Indiana's turnover issue continues to plague (quarterback) Josh Hoover."

The Big Ten has arguably been the most dominant conference in recent years, winning the national championship in each of the past three seasons. Because of that, a scenario where its top teams underperform would be highly unusual and could create a ripple effect throughout the conference.

Pate noted that this type of situation could open the door for other programs to rise, such as USC or Penn State. However, underperforming relative to expectations doesn’t necessarily eliminate those top teams from contention; it simply means they could face more adversity along the way.

For the rest of the Big Ten, this scenario would represent a massive opportunity to close the gap. Programs chasing the conference’s elite could find themselves in a much more competitive race.

Also, this would give the opportunity to new head coaches like Matt Campbell and Penn State to make an early impression on the conference and their fan base by making a run at a conference title in Year 1.

Winning big games was something his predecessor struggled with, resulting in his firing, so if he was able to pull that off, it could put him in the good graces for years to come.

At the same time, the conference’s top teams will be doing everything they can to avoid that outcome. If they stabilize key weaknesses, the Big Ten could look just as dominant as it has in recent seasons. But if not, 2026 could quickly turn into one of the most unpredictable races the conference has seen in years.