Josh Pate Reveals Which Under-the-Radar ACC Program Could Topple Conference Favorites

Every college football season features teams that enter with limited attention but emerge as contenders. These teams often build momentum through recruiting, player development or strategic use of the transfer portal.

The 2025 season provided several examples, with programs like the Miami Hurricanes, Texas A&M Aggies and Texas Tech Red Raiders reaching the College Football Playoff for the first time.

Looking ahead to 2026, Josh Pate identified a potential breakout team on "Josh Pate’s College Football Show." Pate pointed to the Louisville Cardinals as a program capable of surprising many this season.

Louisville’s Lincoln Kienholz took a break during an open practice. | Scott Utterback/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"I actually thought maybe Louisville was the team that made the most sense to be the shark fin offshore, that sort of catches us off guard. And it's because they got Lincoln Kienholz... I'm thinking about the unknown. I'm thinking about what we call upside of unknown."

That “unknown” centers around quarterback Lincoln Kienholz. Kienholz arrives with limited in-game experience but notable potential. Over three seasons, he has attempted just 36 passes for 250 yards and one touchdown.

Despite the limited sample size, Kienholz drew attention during his previous stop for competing with Julian Sayin for a starting role. Sayin went on to produce a standout season, throwing for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns while completing 77% of his passes.

Kienholz’s proximity to that competition has fueled optimism about his potential ceiling. While unproven, his upside is a key factor in Louisville’s outlook. The Cardinals, led by head coach Jeff Brohm, have been consistently competitive in recent seasons. Brohm has compiled a 28-12 record over three years, with at least nine wins in each season.

However, Louisville has yet to break through as a conference champion or secure a playoff berth.

That next step, moving from consistent contender to elite program, remains the primary challenge. With a strong foundation already in place, quarterback play could be the determining factor. Pate suggested that if Kienholz meets expectations, Louisville could take that leap.

If he’s as good as people thought, Pate believes they could surprise a lot of people. The ACC remains competitive, but without a clear dominant team despite Miami playing for a national title last season, opportunities exist for programs to rise quickly. Louisville’s combination of coaching stability and potential at quarterback positions it as a team to watch.

If Kienholz develops into a reliable starter, Louisville could contend for a conference title and potentially secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. The upcoming season will determine whether that potential translates into results.

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