Josh Pate Sends Reality Check to Major Big Ten Program Ahead of 2026 Season

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell answers questions from the media. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

The Penn State Nittany Lions are entering into a new era in hopes of ending a nearly four-decade national championship drought.

That is the Matt Campbell era. Campbell comes to Happy Valley after a successful 10-year stint with the Iowa Cyclones. He went 72-55 during that time frame and built the Cyclones into a legitimate contender in the Big 12.

Matt Campbell Gets His Biggest Opportunity

The question is whether he can do what former head coach James Franklin couldn't and win the big game. His record at Iowa State in big games was similar to Franklin's. He went 4-6 against top-10 teams, 14-25 against ranked opponents and 3-4 in bowl games.

But the difference is the talent level. Campbell didn't have the talent at Iowa State that Franklin had at Penn State. Campbell overachieved given the talent he had, whereas Franklin underachieved. The hope is that Campbell, with Penn State talent, can overachieve as he did at Iowa State.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell walks on the field. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Josh Pate Issues Reality Check

The issue for Campbell is that Penn State fans want results now. They've been so close for about a decade, breaking through and being that Big Ten team that takes home the national championship. However, it is yet to come.

Josh Pate revealed on "Josh Pate's College Football Show" that he thinks fans need to pump the brakes on the expectations for the Nittany Lions this year.

"I think people have to be careful differentiating Penn State's schedule versus Penn State the team," Pate said. "It's really easy to talk about Penn State's schedule, but the schedule is not the team... This is like a veteran Iowa State team. Probably more depth than star power. Meat and potatoes this year."

Pate is right in the fact that Penn State has a very favorable schedule. The team likely won't face a ranked team until the middle of October, when they take on the USC Trojans and the Michigan Wolverines in back-to-back weeks. After that, the Washington Huskies might be the only ranked team left on their schedule.

The Team Will Look More Like Iowa State

These are all games Penn State could win. But as Pate mentioned, this team is not the one fans are used to seeing, which is just loaded with talent. Campbell had to accelerate the rebuild, so he did what a lot of coaches do and brought a lot of his players with him. He brought 23 players with him from Iowa State.

So, this team will likely represent his Iowa State teams more than Franklin's Penn State teams. So the expectations should be minimal for Year 1. After that, the honeymoon phase is over.