Josh Pate calls for upset for projected College Football Playoff team in Week 11

The college football analyst issued a Week 11 upset alert for a top ACC contender, pointing to rising playoff pressure.

College football analyst Josh Pate believes playoff pressure may lead to an upset against this still unproven program in Week 11. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The conversation around the College Football Playoff picture includes the Virginia Cavaliers, a program enjoying its best season in years. Entering Week 11 at 8-1 and unbeaten in conference play, the Cavaliers have quickly climbed into the national conversation. Their No. 14 ranking in the College Football Playoff standings and perfect record at home have made them one of the ACC’s biggest surprises.

Yet, college football analyst Josh Pate isn’t convinced Virginia’s run will continue without turbulence. During Thursday’s episode of his College Football Show podcast, he put the Cavaliers on upset alert against Wake Forest. Pate said Virginia’s first true test as a playoff contender comes with expectations and pressure they haven’t faced before. The Cavaliers are contending for a postseason berth while navigating the kind of national attention that can weigh on a rising team.

Wake Forest, meanwhile, arrives in Charlottesville battered but dangerous. The Demon Deacons were routed 42-7 by Florida State a week ago, but Pate suggested that kind of defeat can produce a desperate and unpredictable opponent. His “upset alert” rating, which measures the potential for chaos, was placed at a six out of ten.

Josh Pate Highlights Turnover Battle as Deciding Factor in Wake Forest-Virginia Matchup

Pate’s reasoning centered on one metric: turnover margin. “Wake Forest at Virginia,” he said. “Virginia is undefeated in conference play even though they’ve lost to an ACC team. What’s left of Wake Forest after Mike Norvell took them and tossed them in the wood chipper last week? I don’t love the Wake Forest matchup. They need to flip the turnover margin here.”

He broke down the numbers, noting that Wake Forest ranks 97th nationally in turnover margin, while Virginia sits at No. 10. “You just need to be plus-two turnovers randomly on an afternoon in a matchup where you’re not good at that and they are good at that,” Pate added.

Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) has 2,069 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

He believes Virginia’s newfound position as a favorite could make them vulnerable. “You’ve got Virginia breathing that November air, contending for the first time, competing for a playoff spot for the first time,” he said. “Sometimes it can go to your head, and sometimes you just play a little bit tighter.”

The Cavaliers have won seven straight games, their longest streak since 2007, and boast one of the nation’s best defenses in late-game situations. However, Wake Forest’s balanced attack and top-50 defensive ranking give it enough to threaten.

The matchup between Virginia and Wake Forest kicks off Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.