Major SEC Program Predicted to Miss College Football Playoff Despite Offseason Hype

Louisiana State Tigers head coach Lane Kiffin looks on prior to the game. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

One of the biggest stories of the 2026 offseason was the LSU Tigers hiring Lane Kiffin away from the Ole Miss Rebels.

Kiffin did a great job building Ole Miss into a contender in his six seasons. He went 55-19, and led the Rebels to three straight and four of his last five double-digit win seasons. It culminated with Ole Miss having its first College Football Playoff berth after going 11-1 in 2025.

Lane Kiffin Leaves Oxford For Baton Rouge

However, there was some controversy at the end of the year. Kiffin wasn't allowed to coach the College Football Playoff run due to accepting the job in Baton Rouge following the regular season finale against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. That is a move that LSU athletic director Verge Ausberry said he would have done as well if the roles were reversed. Ole Miss ended up losing in the semifinals in the final seconds to the Miami Hurricanes.

Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis (10) chases after Louisiana State Tigers running back Caden Durham (29). | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LSU Reloads With No. 1 Portal Class

Now with Kiffin in Baton Rouge, there are a lot of expectations for the Tigers to return to the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2019. There is a good reason: they landed the No. 1-ranked transfer portal class.

A top-five transfer portal class became a staple in the teams that Kiffin built in Oxford. The headliner in this one was Sam Leavitt, who was regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in the portal.

However, Michael Bratton from "That SEC Podcast" revealed on "The Paul Finebaum Show" that people need to temper their high expectations for LSU.

"I don't see where everybody's getting this as a lock to make the College Football Playoff," Bratton said. "I'm sure they'll be in conversation for much of the season, but I think by the final month of the season, I think LSU is going to get knocked out."

LSU Playoff Hopes Get Pushback

The reality is it's hard to make the College Football Playoff, especially in Year 1. Kiffin still has to establish his culture and figure out exactly how his roster should look. The transfer portal can be a great band-aid for some of the holes on a roster, but it can't be what you solely rely on.

It will get them through this year, and maybe it will result in a big run to the playoffs. But if Kiffin wants to build a consistent winner, he's going to need to recruit at a high level at the high school ranks and do well in the portal. He's proven he can recruit in the portal, but has yet to prove it at the high school ranks.

That's likely part of what led him to leave for Baton Rouge. He likely didn't feel he could recruit at a high level at the high school ranks, so he went to a place known for it. Only time will tell if that was a great decision or one of the worst of his career.