Paul Finebaum Names Major SEC Program That Won't Win 9 Games in 2026

Progress is no longer enough. That is the reality facing the Missouri Tigers as they enter another season under Eli Drinkwitz.

For the past few years, the trajectory has been clear. After early struggles, the program found its footing with double-digit wins, sustained competitiveness and a legitimate presence in the national conversation. By most measures, that qualifies as a successful rebuild.

What once felt like a breakthrough now feels like a baseline. Winning eight to 10 games is no longer the goal. It is the expectation. The next step is clear, and it is significantly harder to reach.

Becoming a true contender. That is where the conversation shifts from praise to pressure.

Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz prior to a game. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

The expanded College Football Playoff has created opportunity, but it has also created urgency. More teams have a path, which means more programs believe they should be included. For a team that has already flirted with that level, simply being competitive is no longer enough to satisfy. But success changes expectations.

It is about finishing the job. That is why skepticism still surrounds this team, despite the progress.

On "The Paul Finebaum Show," the SEC Network analyst projected an eight-win season, suggesting that while the start may be strong, the finish will fall short of true contention.

"I think they'll be 5-0 before (Texas) A&M," Finebaum said. I think they'll lose at Ole Miss. That's two. They'll lose three, they'll lose four. I think they're going to be 8-4."

That prediction reflects a broader perception.

This is a program that has proven it can rise, but not one that has proven it can sustain that level against elite competition. The difference between good and great is not about occasional success. It is about consistency against the toughest opponents on the schedule. And that is where this season becomes critical.

The schedule offers no shortcuts. Challenging road environments and high-level matchups will test depth, execution and resilience. There is no room to hide behind favorable stretches or momentum built against weaker competition.

Every week will demand something. That is both the challenge and the opportunity.

If this team can navigate that schedule and emerge with a double-digit win season, the narrative changes immediately. It would no longer be a program on the rise. It would be a program that has arrived. If not, the ceiling becomes clearer.

That is the risk of progress. The closer a team gets to the top, the more noticeable the gap becomes. And closing that gap requires more than stability. It requires difference-makers, situational execution and the ability to win games that are decided in the margins. That is the final step.

Drinkwitz has already proven he can build a competitive program. That part of the equation is no longer in question. What remains is whether he can elevate it beyond that tier and into the group that consistently competes for championships.

This season will go a long way toward answering that. Because in this stage of a rebuild, improvement is not the measuring stick anymore. Proof is.

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