Paul Finebaum Says It's National Championship or Bust for One CFB Powerhouse

ESPN's loudest SEC voice put a hard ceiling on what counts as success in Austin, and the number that follows Arch Manning around tells you why the demand is fair

SEC Network analyst Paul Finebaum believes this SEC power must make it all the way to title game to satisfy the program's lofty expectations. | USA TODAY Sports

College football analyst Paul Finebaum has spent two years cycling through takes on Texas, and this week on ESPN's Get Up he landed on a point of view that leaves no wiggle room.

When host Mike Greenberg asked whether it was title or bust in Austin, Finebaum kept it a buck about the Longhorns.

"You know the answer, Greeny. It is yes," he said. "You don't get to this point with one of the most celebrated players in modern college football history and lay an egg like Texas did last year."

Why Paul Finebaum says Texas must make the title game

Finebaum walked through the receipts from 2025 that lead us to this offseason.

"Remember, they lost the Ohio State game, and then they dropped a game to Florida a couple of weeks later, which really knocked them out of the CFP. They lost to Georgia later on," he said, ticking off the losses that turned a preseason No. 1 team into a squad that watched the playoff from home.

"If he's more efficient and consistent, ... Texas will get to a national championship."

—@JRodgers11 on what Arch Manning needs to do this season to get Texas to the College Football Playoff 💪 pic.twitter.com/REdqQaIxTL

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) July 20, 2026

His argument for 2026 rests on the roster. "They have one of the best rosters, if not the best in all of college football, certainly the best in the SEC. They have to get to the title game."

Texas pulled Auburn's top target, Cam Coleman, out of the transfer portal to line him up next to Ryan Wingo, giving Manning a receiver room that stacks two proven producers on the outside.

Arch Manning's short-passing accuracy is a problem

Finebaum's Get Up co-panelist Jordan Rodgers agreed on the ceiling but spent his airtime on the reason Texas has not reached it yet. "He was one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in the country on the short game," Rodgers said.

"0 to 10 yards, he was last in the SEC, and 122nd in completion percentage, at just 56%. He's the most inaccurate from 0 to 25 yards as well, and all that has to do with footwork and mechanics."

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) must continue to develop as a well-rounded signal-caller in 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The short and intermediate throws keep drives alive on early downs, and a passer ranking near the bottom of the country on them is a passer whose offense stalls in the games where talent alone does not bail you out. Rodgers traced the problem to its source.

"He's got to clean his footwork up, which in turn is going to clean up his release point, some of that sidearm lean that you see at times."

Manning did close 2025 better than he opened it. "You start to see it get a little bit better as the year went on," Rodgers said, before adding the condition that matters. "If he's more efficient and consistent, the explosiveness is going to be there. And Texas will get to a national championship."

Texas has the toughest schedule in the country

Ranking the toughest slates on SEC Network in June, Finebaum pointed straight at the Longhorns.

"Ohio State, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss. I mean at LSU, at A&M. This is one of the trickiest schedules for a contender I have seen," he said.

Bill Connelly's SP+ projected Texas with the toughest schedule in the nation, starting with a Week 2 rematch against Ohio State in Austin before nine SEC games under the league's new nine-game format.

It's not all Arch Manning in Austin. Texas Longhorns linebacker Colin Simmons (11) is one of the best defenders in the country. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

A quarterback who was among the country's least accurate short passers has to fix his mechanics against the deepest schedule anyone is playing, and On3's SEC preview noted that even with the Ohio State test at home, Texas will have no excuses if it misses the playoff for a second straight year.

Whether Manning's footwork and technique hold up against such a difficult schedule is the question that decides whether Texas can win it all.