Rece Davis Names Major College Football Program That Won't Win 10 Games

When Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma for USC, the expectation was simple.

He was supposed to restore one of college football’s most iconic programs and turn the Trojans back into a national championship contender. Four years later, that still has not happened.

USC has shown flashes under Riley, particularly offensively, but the program continues to fall short of the standard that comes with coaching in Los Angeles. A 35-18 record is respectable at many places. At USC, it creates frustration, especially considering Riley’s reputation as one of the top offensive minds in the sport.

The Trojans did improve last season, finishing 9-4 after going 7-6 the year before. The offense looked explosive once again, ranking No. 9 nationally in total offense and No. 13 in scoring offense.

That side of the ball has rarely been the issue under Riley.

Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The concern has always been whether USC can become physical and disciplined enough defensively to consistently compete with elite teams. Until that changes, the Trojans will continue to look more dangerous than dominant.

ESPN’s Rece Davis believes USC will be good again in 2026, but not enough to become a true contender.

They'll be good," Davis said on the 'College GameDay Podcast.' "They might knock off somebody that you don't expect them to. They might dump one that they probably should win. I'm going to say good. Nine wins, something along those lines."

That assessment feels accurate because USC still has too many unanswered questions.

Quarterback Jayden Maiava's return is a massive boost after throwing for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns last season. Riley’s offenses are almost always productive when quarterback play is stable, and Maiava gives USC experience at the most important position on the field.

The problem is that elite quarterback play alone no longer guarantees championships.

College football has changed. The teams winning titles now are balanced, physical and capable of dominating at the line of scrimmage. That has not consistently been true for USC during Riley’s tenure.

Hiring Gary Patterson to replace D'Anton Lynn as defensive coordinator was an important move because Patterson brings credibility and experience.

However, scheme changes do not instantly solve cultural issues. USC has spent years struggling with tackling, discipline and defensive consistency.

Those problems do not disappear overnight.

The larger issue for Riley is that patience is starting to wear thin. USC did not hire him to win nine games and occasionally upset a contender. The program hired him to compete for national championships and reestablish itself as one of the elite brands in the sport.

That urgency is only increasing after Riley’s own comments this offseason about finally having a roster capable of competing at the highest level. Frankly, that statement creates even more pressure.

USC has NIL resources, recruiting advantages, location advantages and one of the biggest brands in college football. If Riley believes the roster is finally ready, then expectations naturally rise with it. Fair or not, excuses begin to disappear. That is why 2026 feels so important for USC.

Another nine-win season would suggest the program is stuck in the same cycle. Dangerous offensively, entertaining to watch, but ultimately not complete enough to seriously contend for a national title.

And at a place like USC, almost being back is not the same thing as actually being back.

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