Six Week 3 Games that could impact the CFP Race

Joey Aguilar and Tennessee will get a shot at No. 6 Georgia in a game with significant Playoff implications.
Joey Aguilar and Tennessee will get a shot at No. 6 Georgia in a game with significant Playoff implications. | Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Week 3 of college football offers a couple of genuinely epic matchups and several more competitive games that could have profound impacts on the College Football Playoff. With a 12-team field, the race for position is a constant storyline surrounding the nation's top conferences. Here are six Week 3 games that could shift the Playoff field.

No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee

Both teams are 2-0 and the Vols are thinking upset against the Bulldogs. Georgia has claimed the last eight games in the series, with only one coming by as few as 14 points. But Georgia has faced an easy slate so far, while Tennessee rolled up points against Syracuse in Week 1. The SEC seems certain to slate at least three teams into the CFP field. At the moment, Georgia is second in the SEC in ESPN's FPI-based Playoff odds (62.2%) while Tennessee is fourth (52.3%). This isn't an elimination game, but the winner has a significant leg up moving ahead.

No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami

There's a couple of playoff issues in this battle of 2-0 teams. South Florida has become the leader in the clubhouse for the CFP's G5 representative. The Bulls would love to position themselves well enough that their spot doesn't depend solely on winning the AAC title game, which a win over Miami would help. For Miami, the ACC could be a two-team CFP league. The Hurricanes have the ACC's best CFP shot (35.7%), but similarly don't want to end up with the Playoff hanging on winning the ACC title game.

No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame

A&M's ho-hum 2-0 start leaves them in the glut of teams not quite in the CFP conversation for the SEC at the moment. The Aggies have just a 21.7% Playoff shot, which could be helped here. Meanwhile, Notre Dame could fall to 0-2, which would mean the Irish probably have to run the table for the rest of the season to get in the Playoff discussion. Notre Dame's 23.2% Playoff chances would drop significantlyl with another loss.

Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss

The FPI rankings love Ole Miss and give the Rebels the SEC's third-best shot at the Playoff at 59.7%. But Ole Miss has a starting QB who has more interceptions than touchdowns in two games. Arkansas is an underdog by about a score, but Taylen Green looks like a passer who can move the ball against anyone. An Ole Miss loss hurts their CFP shot and probably helps teams like Alabama or LSU.

Florida at No. 3 LSU

Speaking of which, here's another big game. The underdog has won four of the last five games in this series and after a loss to South Florida, that's definitely the Gators here. Florida's Playoff shot is basically gone (4.5%), but LSU isn't a favorite of the FPI, coming in below Auburn at 25.6%. This is either a chance for Florida to create a mess or for the Tigers to impress the computers.

No. 12 Clemson at Georgia Tech

Here's a surprise. Of the teams in this game, Tech has the better CFP odds per FPI. The 2-0 Yellowjackets have a 16.7% shot at the Playoff (third best in the ACC), while Clemson's chances have dropped to 10.5% after an ugly win over Troy. There's definitely not four CFP spots for the ACC out there, and Clemson needs to have within striking range of Florida State and Miami for any type of security. Losing to the Yellowjackets would just about end those hopes.


Published | Modified
Joe Cox
JOE COX

Joe is a journalist and writer who covers college and professional sports. He has written or co-written over a dozen sports books, including several regional best sellers. His last book, A Fine Team Man, is about Jackie Robinson and the lives he changed. Joe has been a guest on MLB Network, the Paul Finebaum show and numerous other television and radio shows. He has been inside MLB dugouts, covered bowl games and conference tournaments with Saturday Down South and still loves telling the stories of sports past and present.