Six Week 5 games that could impact the CFP race

The move into conference play bring about a host of games with CFP significance in Week 5. While the main action revolves around the SEC and Big Ten, there are a veritable bevy of CFP-relevant games this coming weekend. Here's a rundown of six of the biggest.

No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State

While the rankings and spread favor the home Nittany Lions, the early CFP metrics from ESPN favor the Ducks. The FPI stats have Oregon second in the Big Ten (behind Ohio State) with a 71.1% shot at a CFP bid. Penn State, on the other hand, is currently fifth in the Big Ten pecking order, with a 39.5% chance at the Playoff. Those numbers seem to reflect the reality of this week-- it's significant for Oregon, but it seems pivotal for Penn State.

No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss

The Rebels are the slimmest of home favorites, but FPI gives them better than double LSU's Playoff shot. Ole Miss is at a 66.9% chance at a bid while the Tigers at 30.5% trail Vanderbit and Missouri. There are four SEC teams currently between a 45 and a 50% shot at the Playoff. The winner of this game stays ahead of those, and the loser stays behind them.

No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois

The Trojans are another statistical darling, with a near coin-toss shot (49.5%) at the Playoff, while Illinois, off a brutal loss to Indiana, slid to just 2.5%. It'll take more than an upset here to get Illinois back on track, but it's possible. In the meanwhile, USC is likely to be revealed as a contender or pretender.

No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia

This one is really about Alabama. Georgia, sitting on a 75.2% shot at a bid, could be in just fine even with a loss. Alabama gets a surprising 50% shot. But even as a statistical darling, a 2-2 Tide team will slide well back behind the SEC field with another loss.

No. 8 Florida State vs. Virginia

The ACC's best shot at two bids is keeping Miami and Florida State pristine for as long as possible. Given FSU's 29.7% playoff shot (slightly below Vanderbilt), they can't afford a bad loss. This is dangerous, as Virginia is actually fourth in the ACC with a 6% CFP shot (Georgia Tech is the team between FSU and UVA). It's hard to imagine a fourth team in the ACC picture, but if Virginia wants to claim it, this is a big opportunity.

No. 25 BYU at Colorado

The Big 12 looks increasingly like a one-bid league. If that stays true, then close second BYU (31.9% Playoff shot) absolutely cannot afford a loss to a 2-2 Colorado team that is entirely off ESPN's Playoff board in FPI terms. But the home Buffs are competitive underdogs with an odds line hanging around a single score.