3,500-Yard QB 'Confidently' Predicted to be First-Round Pick in 2026 NFL Draft

There was some debate around whether the star quarterback should even be in the NFL Draft this year, but now experts are calling him a sure thing to hear his name on the first night.

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Trying to project who will and won’t be a first round pick in any NFL Draft is risky business, given how often such confident predictions in the past went belly up.

Shedeur Sanders was thought to be a sure thing on opening night last spring, only to sit around and wait until the fifth round to hear his name, while draft veterans were surprised to see Baker Mayfield become a No. 1 overall selection in 2018.

Such questions are being thrown around again about Ty Simpson, the Alabama quarterback who entered his name into the NFL Draft after one season as starter, a decision that was originally met with skepticism from many analysts.

But even with all the debate around Simpson’s decision, one form of consensus appears to be forming around the talking heads at this year’s NFL Draft, according to veteran ESPN reporter Adam Schefter.

Schefty makes a prediction

“The one thing I can say confidently right now, talking to front offices, is I believe, and it’s not going out on a limb, Ty Simpson will be a first round draft pick,” Schefter said in comments to The Pat McAfee Show.

"The one thing that I can say confidently right now is that Ty Simpson will be a first round draft pick..

Talking to front offices that's what I believe"@AdamSchefter #PMSLive https://t.co/8WAIXvyscD pic.twitter.com/tIuZQUWrli

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) March 23, 2026

“A first round draft pick. That’s all I’m comfortable saying right now. We will revisit this topic many times as the draft marches closer. We’re one month out exactly. 

“I think that will probably be one of the central, focal story lines of the first round of the draft: Where does Ty Simpson go? 

“All I’m comfortable saying right now is, I’m comfortable he’ll be a first round pick.”

Stay in school, draft experts warned at first

There was talk that Simpson could stay at Alabama after starting for just one season, and after waiting for so long to finally get that opportunity.

And that seemed to be a consensus among draft gurus right when he came out of school.

“Simpson needs more time in college,” The Athletic’s Dane Brugler simply stated in a blunt assessment of the Alabama quarterback’s draft prospects at the end of last year.

Analysts are still high on Simpson

Veteran draft analyst Todd McShay also thought Simpson should wait, but also noted that he has credible future possibilities in the NFL.

“Ty Simpson has good command and conviction,” McShay said recently.

“Urgency, depth of drops, tying his feet to the play structure. The concept, the understanding of everything. Everything is scheduled…

“He understands the inner workings of every play and what’s expected and what the pre-snap motion is supposed to identify. And once he identifies that, his brain is like, it’s like the beautiful mind.

“I promise you that aspect of his game I haven’t seen since Joe Burrow in 2019.”

Simpson’s production was up, then down

Simpson ranked 10th in college football in passer rating while completing over 70 percent of his passes, but dipped to 90th in that category while hitting 58 percent of his throws over his last six appearances.

That shift in output came against better defenses, as Simpson played better against defenses that ranked outside the top 25 in efficiency, and struggled against opponents that placed in the top 15 in that category.

What will NFL front office decision makers make of that production? We’ll know once the NFL Draft begins in a month.