Alabama vs. Florida State score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. Florida State in this Week 1 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Alabama vs. Florida State football game score prediction 2025 | Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

Week 1 of the 2025 college football season finds Alabama on the road against Florida State in this marquee non-conference matchup. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert football analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

All eyes are on Kalen DeBoer in his second season to help improve from his 9-4 debut and get back to double-digit victories and College Football Playoff contention after being left out of the inaugural 12-team postseason field in his first year replacing Nick Saban.

The path to the playoff got a little harder, at least on paper, after the Crimson Tide lost dual-threat playmaking quarterback Jalen Milroe, whose dynamic running ability could stymie opposing defenses and give their offense an added dimension to defend.

In his place steps Ty Simpson, a former five-star prospect in his own right, but low on experience, stepping in behind one of college football’s more quality offensive lines and aided by a receiving corps that should be one of the nation’s best, led by Ryan Williams.

Florida State, who are you? Last season, this was a 2-10 disaster that put the otherwise-promising tenure of Mike Norvell into a temporary tailspin, just one year removed from going undefeated in the regular season and winning the ACC title.

That was also the year the Seminoles were deprived a place in the last four-team College Football Playoff, a hugely controversial decision and the first time that a Power Five team that hadn’t lost a game was kept out of the national semifinal.

The team the selectors let in that year? Alabama, which lost the Rose Bowl to eventual national champion Michigan in what turned out to be Nick Saban’s final game.

Now the Seminoles look to get a kind of revenge against the program that edged them out from that playoff, and, if they can pull off this massive upset, take what would be a major first step back to national relevance.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Crimson Tide and Seminoles face off in this non-conference clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and Florida State compare in this Week 1 college football game.

Alabama vs. Florida State score prediction

Those hopes the Seminoles had to start 1-0 look to be in peril, as the model predictably is siding with the SEC side of this matchup on the road.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Florida State by a projected score of 32 to 18 and to win the game by an expected margin of 14.3 points in the matchup.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a strong 81 percent chance of outright victory away from home, while giving the Seminoles a 19 percent shot at the upset.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good was it last season? A year ago, the SP+ model went 409-389-9 overall against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage.

--

How to bet Alabama vs. Florida State

As expected, the bookies are also giving the Crimson Tide a major edge over the Seminoles in this Week 1 opener.

Alabama is a 13.5 point favorite against Florida State, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -610 and for Florida State at +440 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Alabama -13.5
• Bama to win -610
• Bet over 48.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bets.

A plurality of bettors are expecting the Crimson Tide to take care of business against the Seminoles in the opener, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Alabama is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game by at least two touchdowns and cover the generous point spread on Saturday.

The other 37 percent of wagers project the Seminoles will either defeat the Crimson Tide outright in an upset, or will keep the final margin under two touchdowns in a loss.

--

Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Crimson Tide over the Seminoles.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

That model gives the SEC team a considerable margin against its ACC counterpart.

Alabama is the overwhelming favorite to take down Florida State, coming out ahead in 90.6 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Florida State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 9.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama is projected to be 17.1 points better than Florida State on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

--

College Football HQ prediction

College Football HQ picks: Alabama wins and covers the spread.

Alabama’s run game could prove a liability with expected lead back Jam Miller injured and the Seminoles likely to get better in their defensive front seven rotation, and Thomas Castellanos will give FSU’s offense some early confidence, but the Tide have more skill weapons to stretch the field and the superior defense to take over in the second half.

More... Alabama vs. Florida State prediction: Who wins, and why?

--

How to watch Alabama vs. Florida State

When: Sat., Aug. 30
Where: Tallahassee, Fla.

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

--

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

--