Alabama vs. Georgia prediction: Who wins, and why?

College football’s game of the week comes from between the hedges in SEC country as No. 5 Georgia welcomes No. 17 Alabama on Saturday night. Here’s what you need to know as these rivals square off, with our final On SI prediction for the game.

Pressure is always high in matchups of this caliber in the SEC, but Alabama finds itself in the cross hairs of an anxious fan base watching very carefully how head coach Kalen DeBoer performs after already dropping a two-touchdown decision at Florida State.

Falling to .500 just a month into the season is not what Alabama is paying DeBoer for, and such a result would raise the temperature around his tenure considerably.

Standing in their way is quite a challenge.

The reigning SEC champion Bulldogs have won 33 straight home games, and are coming off an emotional, comeback win against rival Tennessee to stay undefeated in a game head coach Kirby Smart said Gunner Stockton came of age at the quarterback position.

What can we expect as the Crimson Tide face off against the Bulldogs this weekend?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Alabama and Georgia meet in this Week 5 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Alabama vs. Georgia prediction: What to watch for

Alabama vs. Georgia football game prediction 2025 — Melina Myers-Imagn Images

1. Finding balance

Georgia was able to get out of Tennessee with a narrow three-point win mostly because Stockton was able to put the team on his shoulders and get a few past the Vols’ secondary, but this offense can’t just sit back and hope he can do that every week going forward.

The Bulldogs need to keep building momentum by running the football. They couldn’t last season, ranking 15th in the SEC in rushing offense, but have fared marginally better so far, averaging 4.5 yards per carry while posting 209 yards per game on the ground.

Keeping an Alabama offense that has been firing off big gainers the last two weeks off the field will depend on how well Georgia can establish the run and take time off the game clock.

This offensive line has the manpower to dictate terms in the trenches against a Tide front that hasn’t fared as well as expected when pressuring the quarterback, and can carve open some running lanes to balance out this attack.

2. Going deep

Watch how aggressive Alabama gets throwing the ball deep against the Georgia secondary early on, a matchup situation that could prove to be an advantage given the Tide’s relative struggles running the ball so far this season.

Georgia’s defensive backfield didn’t play its A-game at Tennessee last week, allowing 4 touchdown passes from Joey Aguilar, with three of them going for 32 or more yards. A capable quarterback and agile receivers can potentially get some air under this group.

Enter Ryan Williams, the star Alabama wide receiver who cut open Georgia’s pass defense with considerable ease in last season’s upset win in Tuscaloosa, catching just 6 passes but averaging almost 30 yards per touch while covering 177 yards and scoring a touchdown.

Germie Bernard is another key outlet for Alabama’s passing attack, bringing in 15 catches for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns already this fall.

Ellis Robinson and Daniel Harris have to be on point in Georgia’s secondary to guard against the Tide’s capable deep-field targets from gaining an early advantage.

3. On the ground

Ty Simpson has looked solid thus far quarterbacking this Alabama offense, completing nearly 72 percent of his pass attempts with 9 touchdowns and no interceptions, but he still needs help from a backfield that so far hasn’t produced anywhere near enough.

Bama is 103rd in the country in rushing output, averaging just 124 yards per game on the ground, a weakness that was all too glaring in the Florida State game, when their backs had just 87 total yards behind a line that looked overpowered.

Part of those struggles stem from an offensive line that has failed to play up to its potential, and the team still suffers from the lack of a tried and true starting back to put this unit on his shoulders and give the offense an identity.

Jam Miller is expected to return for this game, an important advantage for the Tide to lean on early and boost some of these dismal rushing numbers.

But that could prove to be an issue against a Georgia rush defense that ranks among college football’s best so far: it ranks top 20 nationally allowing fewer than 83 yards per game on average, surrendered 2 touchdowns, and allows just 2.7 yards per carry.

Who is favored?

The bookies are giving the home team a slight edge in this SEC classic.

Georgia is a 2.5 point favorite against Alabama, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -152 and for Alabama at +126 to win outright.