Rece Davis makes prediction for Alabama vs. Georgia game

Alabama and Georgia face off in a critical Week 5 college football clash, and College GameDay host Rece Davis has revealed his prediction.

Rece Davis reveals his game prediction as Alabama hits the road against Georgia in college football's Week 5 action. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

College football’s game of the week finds SEC bluebloods Alabama and Georgia facing off on the same field in a critical early test for two conference championship hopefuls that could end up directly influencing the shape of the College Football Playoff.

College GameDay host Rece Davis hosted a roundtable on the show’s podcast to discuss what might transpire in Athens, and to lock in some predictions for the game.

As might be expected, the consensus was forming around the reigning SEC champions.

“I think Alabama plays great. I think Alabama plays well enough to win, but doesn’t. I’m going to take Georgia to win the game,” Davis said.

Some hope for Crimson Tide fans perhaps, as he added: “But I think most of the questions about Alabama will be erased.”

Pressure is mounting at Alabama

DeBoer has found himself under tremendous criticism from the discerning Alabama fan base after the team’s two-touchdown loss against Florida State.

But while Davis may think Alabama plays well enough to “erase” those questions around DeBoer’s program, a loss is still a loss, and most fans may not be so forgiving as to find a moral victory in what would be a 2-2 Crimson Tide squad if Saturday doesn’t end well.

Davis, an Alabama alum, still has confidence in DeBoer to right the ship, citing the coach’s previous success at Washington.

“Kalen DeBoer has not won on the road at Alabama. He’s won at Oregon. He’s won in front of a pro-Texas crowd in the Sugar Bowl against Texas.”

Is anyone taking Alabama here?

Ryan McGee took a harsher view of DeBoer’s management at Alabama, and consequently what may happen on Saturday night.

“He can’t win on the road,” he said.

“Until his teams prove to me they can win any game on the road, let alone going between the hedges... I think this is Georgia and it might not be that close.”

ESPN college football analyst Pete Thamel concurred with the others, but thinks the Crimson Tide go enough to keep this a game worth watching.

“I think it is close, but I think Georgia wins,” he said. “I think it’s low scoring, and I think it’s going to end up being a good, old-fashioned slog. I’m going to take Georgia in a 20-13 type game.”

What the analytics say

The network’s own College Football Power Index model takes a similar view, and is also projecting a close result.

The computer model uses data points from both teams in every matchup to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia came out on top of Alabama in the majority 54.8 percent of the computer model’s simulations of the game.

That left the Crimson Tide as the presumptive winner in the remaining 45.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This one could come down to the very last second.

Georgia is projected to be just 1.1 points better than Alabama on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

The trends are building against Alabama in this crucial SEC test, and if those trends prove correct, it could be another argument against Nick Saban’s embattled successor.

More: ESPN computer predicts Alabama vs. Georgia football game winner

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