Alabama vs. Indiana prediction: Who wins the Rose Bowl game, and why?

It’s blue blood against new blood in college football’s most prestigious venue, as Alabama takes on Indiana in the Rose Bowl playoff quarterfinal round on New Year’s Day.

Indiana has appeared in 15 postseason games all time. Alabama has played in 15 games in the College Football Playoff format alone.

But this time around, the Hoosiers are the undefeated No. 1 overall seed and a favorite to win the national championship. Not to mention the betting favorite.

Alabama looked on the ropes in the first round, but rallied from a 17-0 deficit on the road against Oklahoma to pull out a comeback victory and advance to Pasadena.

Alabama vs. Indiana: What to watch

Alabama vs. Indiana College Football Playoff Rose Bowl game prediction — Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

1. Neutralizing Alabama’s Aerial Dominance

Alabama’s passing attack, led by quarterback Ty Simpson’s 65 percent accuracy and deep-ball prowess, ranks among the nation’s better aerial attacks, averaging over 280 yards per game with explosive plays that stretch defenses thin.

Indiana’s secondary, bolstered by elite cornerback play and ranking top 20 against the pass this season, can jam receivers at the line, contest every 50-50 ball, and funnel throws into underneath coverage where linebackers can rally for tackles to limit gains.

Indiana’s success hinges on generating turnovers through physicality, disrupting timing routes, and forcing hurried decisions to stall Alabama’s offensive drives.

By limiting big plays, Indiana can flip field position, keeps Alabama’s offense one-dimensional, and preserves energy for their own drives, turning the Tide’s strength into a predictable grind.

2. Indiana’s Ground Game vs. Alabama’s Front Seven

The Hoosiers boast a rushing attack that ranks 10th nationally, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, powering an offense that controls tempo and sets up quarterback Fernando Mendoza’s efficiency.

Alabama’s defensive line, anchored by edge rushers like LT Overton, has suffocated runs all season but faces a test against Indiana’s zone-blocking schemes that create cutback lanes.

Indiana’s physicality up front can exploit gaps if they mix speeds and misdirection, dictating pace and forcing Alabama into reactive mode while protecting Mendoza from Alabama’s good pass rush.

3. Battle on the ground

Whoever is able to dictate terms by running the ball with authority has an easier path to victory, and on paper Indiana has by far the advantage over Alabama in that phase.

Indiana is one of the 10 best rushing offenses in college football this season, averaging 5.5 yards per carry while posting over 221 yards on the ground per game and scoring 29 touchdowns in total.

Alabama is one of the worst ground offenses in the country, ranking 120th out of 136 FBS teams by averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and amassing fewer than 110 yards in total from its various backs.

Indiana stops the run better than almost every team in the nation, ranking third in college football by posting 2.8 yards per attempt and has surrendered a total of five rushing touchdowns, the fewest of any team in FBS.

Alabama vs. Indiana prediction: Who wins?

Line: Indiana -7.5, 47.5

Alabama has the bodies to apply some decent pressure on Mendoza in the pocket and disrupt Indiana’s famed offensive rhythm, and boasts skill players who can exploit some coverage gaps in the Hoosiers’ secondary.

But the Crimson Tide can’t run the ball right now. They average 2.5 yards per touch against AP ranked teams and averaged all of 12.5 rushing yards per game in the month of December. Advantage, Hoosiers.

College Football HQ picks...

Indiana wins 26-20
Doesn’t cover the spread
And hits the under

How to watch the Rose Bowl

When: Thurs., Jan. 1
Where: Pasadena

Time: 4 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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