Alabama vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert football model

It will be an all-SEC affair in Norman as the 2025 edition of the College Football Playoff gets underway with the debut first-round game in a rematch of a consequential regular season matchup.

Oklahoma had Alabama's number a couple weeks ago in a game that helped put the Sooners squarely in the playoff bracket, and very nearly put the Crimson Tide outside it.

OU is 2-0 against Alabama under Kalen DeBoer's direction, and there is some pressure on the head coach to right that wrong in this important postseason game, and with persistent rumors that he could have one eye on the head coaching vacancy at Michigan.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Sooners host the Crimson Tide in the playoff?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oklahoma and Alabama compare in this first round College Football Playoff game.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma score prediction

The models are siding with the home team in this rematch, but by a very narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will defeat Alabama by a projected score of 24 to 21 and will win the game by an expected margin of 3.3 points in the process.

The model gives the Sooners a slight 58 percent chance of outright victory over the Crimson Tide.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 391-370 against the spread with a 51.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 4-5 (44.4%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are also leaning on the Sooners over the Crimson Tide, but also expect a close game.

Oklahoma is a 1.5 point favorite against Alabama, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 41.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -112 and for Alabama at -104 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Alabama played some very efficient offense for much of the season, even if that production came almost entirely from Ty Simpson and the Crimson Tide air attack in the virtual absence of a credible rushing threat.

If anything, even that passing game has deteriorated over the last few weeks of the season, and the Oklahoma defense is still one of the most consistently-productive units in the country.

Alabama has some strong defenders in its own right, and can challenge a Sooner offense that has been known to stall, but the OU defense can produce turnovers, score, and put John Mateer in position to make enough plays.

College Football HQ predicts: Oklahoma defeats Alabama, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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