ESPN computer predicts Alabama vs. Wisconsin game winner

Expert prediction for Alabama vs. Wisconsin by a model that simulates games and picks winners.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Wisconsin Badgers game prediction 2025 | Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Alabama hosts Wisconsin in college football’s Week 3 action on Saturday in a notable SEC vs. Big Ten matchup. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Alabama came away with a morale booster last weekend, recovering from a stunning two-touchdown loss at Florida State in the opener by pounding UL Monroe in a 73-0 rout to give second-year head coach Kalen DeBoer some breathing room.

Wisconsin underwent a sudden change at quarterback after Billy Edwards left the opener with a sprained knee and his status is up in the air against the Crimson Tide.

In his place, Danny O’Neil has thrown for over 400 yards while completing more than 76 percent of his pass attempts, but the Badgers rank just 64 in FBS in turnover margin, while Alabama is 8th in the country.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. Wisconsin prediction

As may be expected, the models are siding very strongly with the Crimson Tide over the Badgers in this marquee non-conference matchup.

Alabama is the big favorite in the game, coming out ahead of the Badgers in the vast majority 88.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the contest.

That leaves Wisconsin as the presumptive winner in the remaining 11.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Crimson Tide came out on top in 17,780 of the computer projections for the matchup, while the Badgers edged out Alabama in the other 2,220 predictions.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect the Tide to come out more than two touchdowns better against their Big Ten counterpart.

Alabama is projected to be 15.7 points better than Wisconsin on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Tide to cover the spread against the Badgers.

That’s because Alabama is a 20.5 point favorite against Wisconsin, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -2300 and for Wisconsin at +1060 to win outright.

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Where the money is going

A slight majority of bettors expect the Badgers to make this a little interesting on the road in SEC country, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Wisconsin is getting 58 percent of bets to either defeat Alabama outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin to 3 touchdowns or fewer in a loss.

The other 42 percent of wagers project the Crimson Tide will get past 3 touchdowns and beat the Badgers by more than 21 points this weekend.

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Alabama vs. Wisconsin future projections

Alabama marginally improved its position on the index after its 73-point victory against UL Monroe last week, moving to second place among SEC teams with a 17.6 percent chance to win the conference championship.

The models forecast the Crimson Tide will win 8.5 games this season, and have a 48.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Bama is expected to be 21.2 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, good for No. 4 nationally on the computer’s 136-team college football rankings.

Wisconsin is projected to win 5.6 games in 2025 and have a 2.4 percent chance to make the postseason, but is one of six teams with 0 percent chance to win the Big Ten.

The index ranked the Badgers in the No. 40 position on its national rankings, and expects they’ll be 6.9 points better than other teams this season on average.

That adds up to a 52.4 percent chance for Wisconsin to become bowl eligible.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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