College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 3

Coming out of the latest Saturday of action, let’s take a look at the updated ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we look ahead to an active Week 3 slate of games.

John Mateer and the Oklahoma offense put on a show against Michigan in a signature win both for the Sooners and the SEC in the one marquee non-conference game on Saturday, while ranked Florida and Arizona State both lost to unranked opponents in the big upsets of Week 2.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

Where do things stand in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings this week?

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 3

25. Texas Tech

College football rankings: ESPN updated Top 25 poll for Week 3 — Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 9

Win projection: 8.5 games

Behren Morton threw 3 touchdown passes and the Red Raiders new-look defense secured a pick-six to put away Kent State by a convincing 62-14 margin to improve to 2-0 with a date against Oregon State at home up next before opening Big 12 play with a big game at Utah after that.

24. Illinois

Rankings change: Up 14

Win projection: 8.2 games

It was a little sluggish at first as the Illini found their way on the road against Duke, but the team settled in and pulled away in the second half to come out with a dominant 45-19 victory, still leaving questions about the quality of play on both lines and in the secondary.

23. Florida

College football rankings: ESPN updates top 25 poll for Week 3 — Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 11

Win projection: 5.2 games

Billy Napier has to be back on the hot seat after the AP No. 13 ranked Gators inexplicably lost at home against unranked USF on a last-second field goal. DJ Lagway had a touchdown and a pick while posting under 7 yards per pass and Florida’s backs failed to get into the end zone at all, but the ESPN computers still keep Florida in the top 25 by virtue of their expected margin per game (11.9 points).

22. Oklahoma

Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 6.9 games

John Mateer accounted for three all-purpose touchdowns in a signature victory for the Sooners over Michigan, and the first big test for an offense that looks to be one of the more improved in college football, while OU’s tough defensive front showed out again.

21. Miami

Rankings change: Down 6

Win projection: 9.4 games

Carson Beck broke a school record by completing his first 15 straight passes and finished 22 of 24 with 264 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Hurricanes easily got past Bethune-Cookman in a 45-3 rout, and now get a shot at a USF team that is the only team in college football to already beat two ranked opponents, and just knocked off Florida on the road.

20. South Carolina

Rankings change: Down 10

Win projection: 7.5 games

Some frankly pedestrian numbers for the Gamecocks at home against South Carolina State, but the game was delayed for weather, and the special teams did the heavy lifting as Vicari Swain returned 2 punts for touchdowns at home with the SEC opener against Vanderbilt up next.

19. TCU

Rankings change: Down 1

Win projection: 9.0 games

TCU was off this weekend, getting a well-deserved early rest after ruining Bill Belichick’s debut at North Carolina in a 48-14 rout on opening day, returning home next weekend against Abilene Christian.

18. Arkansas

Rankings change: Up 10

Win projection: 6.7 games

Some more representation for the SEC with a new entrant in this week's rankings as the Razorbacks put on show behind dual-threat quarterback Taylen Green, who accounted for 420 total yards while rushing for 151 in a dominant 56-14 victory over Arkansas State, a morale booster for the team heading into the SEC opener at Ole Miss next week.

17. BYU

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 8.9 games

Bear Bachmeier had 175 yards passing with a touchdown while LJ Martin tacked on 110 rushing yards, but the Cougars defense did a lot of the work in a 27-3 victory over Stanford late on Saturday, helping this team outscore opponents 96-3 in two games so far this season.

16. Indiana

Rankings change: Up 14

Win projection: 8.7 games

Curt Cignetti wanted to see more from this offense after a relatively-close opener, and the Hoosiers responded as Fernando Mendoza threw 4 touchdown passes, including 3 for wideout Elijah Sarratt while piling up almost 600 total yards to stay perfect.

15. LSU

Rankings change: Down 4

Win projection: 7.7 games

Not quite as dominant as was expected against Louisiana Tech, but LSU still pulled out a 23-7 victory in its home debut as Garrett Nussmeier posted 237 yards passing and now look ahead to hosting the SEC opener against a Florida team that just lost to USF at home. Still a pretty crummy win total for the SEC hopefuls by these metrics, though.

14. Texas A&M

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 7.4 games

Marcel Reed had 220 passing yards with 3 touchdowns in a big win over Utah State, but there was some concern for the Aggies’ quarterback’s health after he retired to the medical tent after being on the receiving end of a huge hit while scrambling in the game.

13. Utah

Rankings change: Up 7

Win projection: 9.3 games

Another big result for Utah, which is getting serious returns from its new-look offense so far, as quarterback Devon Dampier tied a career-record with 3 touchdown passes in a single game and the Utes defense looked its usual self in a 63-9 rout over Cal Poly, and it looks like we have another Big 12 title contender.

12. Missouri

Rankings change: Up 7

Win projection: 8.2 games

Beau Pribula connected with Brett Norfleet on a huge touchdown play on 4th & 1 to take a lead over Kansas in the Border War, and then Jamal Roberts ran through the Jayhawks’ defense on a 63-yard score to extend that lead in the first meeting of these rivals since 2011, out-rushing KU 249-3.

11. Auburn

Rankings change: Up 5

Win projection: 8.1 games

Jackson Arnold turned out another solid performance, going 24 of 28 passing for 251 yards with 3 touchdown passes and no picks in a big win over Ball State, moving to 2-0 ahead of a home date against South Alabama before playing two straight road games against Oklahoma and then Texas A&M.

10. Notre Dame

Rankings change: Down 1

Win projection: 8.8 games

Already enjoying an idle week early in the season, the Fighting Irish are taking another look at what happened in that 3-point loss at Miami in the opener as they look ahead to hosting SEC hopeful Texas A&M and its potent offense next weekend.

9. Tennessee

Rankings change: Down 1

Win projection: 9.5 games

Joey Aguilar threw 2 touchdown passes while covering nearly 300 yards and the Vols rumbled for 259 yards on the ground with 5 more touchdowns in a 72-17 demolition against East Tennessee State in their home opener on Rocky Top. UT has scored 117 points in two games with a monster date against Georgia up next.

8. Ole Miss

Rankings change: Down 4

Win projection: 9.9 games

Austin Simmons threw two first-half interceptions and the Rebels had to overcome an early 10-0 deficit, but the quarterback had 235 yards passing and ran for a score to help propel Ole Miss to a 7-point win at Kentucky, avenging last year’s loss to the Wildcats in this SEC opener and heading into a date with Arkansas next week.

7. Penn State

Rankings change: Down 2

Win projection: 9.9 games

Drew Allar hit 19 of 33 passes for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Nittany Lions got past FIU in a 34-0 decision, as both Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen ran for scores, but this offense looked a little sluggish as the rain poured down on Beaver Stadium. Villanova is next before Oregon comes to Happy Valley.

6. Georgia

Rankings change: Down 4

Win projection: 9.1 games

Chauncey Bowens and Nate Frazier both ran for 2 touchdowns and the Bulldogs scored on a 99-yard drive, but otherwise this offense struggled more than it should have in a 28-6 win over Austin Peay delayed by weather, with a date at Tennessee up next.

5. USC

Rankings change: Up 1

Win projection: 10.0 games

Clay Helton’s return to the Coliseum was forgettable, as his Georgia Southern team was demolished by the Trojans in a 59-20 rout that say Jayden Maiava hit 412 yards passing with 4 TDs and no picks while the Men of Troy racked up 309 rushing yards and this offense has scored 132 points in two games already. ESPN’s computers are in love with the Trojans owing to their dominant margins of victory so far this season.

4. Alabama

Rankings change: Up 9

Win projection: 8.5 games

Kalen DeBoer was able to wash away some of that awful taste from last week’s loss to Florida State by demolishing UL Monroe in a 73-0 rout as Ty Simpson completed his first 17 passes, an Alabama record. Wisconsin comes to Tuscaloosa next weekend.

3. Ohio State

Rankings change: None

Win projection: 10.8 games

As expected, the Buckeyes rolled over Grambling, coming out the other side of a 70-0 blowout as Julian Sayin hit over 300 yards passing while going 18 of 19 with 4 touchdowns and Jeremiah Smith went over 100 yards with 2 TDs while Bo Jackson added another score and 108 yards on the ground.

2. Texas

College football rankings: ESPN top 25 poll for Week 3 — Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 1

Win projection: 9.4 games

Longhorn fans can take a breath now after Arch Manning looked better in his second time out, in the team’s home opener against San Jose State, going 19 of 30 with 318 total yards and 5 all-purpose touchdowns with one pick in a 38-7 victory and heading into a home date against UTEP.

1. Oregon

Rankings change: Up 6

Win projection: 10.7 games

Mike Gundy took issue with how much money Oregon was spending on its roster, and then learned the hard way just how far the dollar still goes, coming out the wrong end of a 69-3 apocalypse on the road as the Ducks handed him his worst-ever defeat in a game that included back-to-back pick-sixes and over 630 total yards from Oregon’s side.

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 3

25. Texas Tech

24. Illinois

23. Florida

22. Oklahoma

21. Miami

20. South Carolina

19. TCU

18. Arkansas

17. BYU

16. Indiana

15. LSU

14. Texas A&M

13. Utah

12. Missouri

11. Auburn

10. Notre Dame

9. Tennessee

8. Ole Miss

7. Penn State

6. Georgia

5. USC

4. Alabama

3. Ohio State

2. Texas

1. Oregon

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