Auburn vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Auburn vs. Texas A&M in this Week 5 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Auburn vs. Texas A&M score prediction 2025 | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Auburn and Texas A&M square off in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday from SEC country. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Texas A&M jumped seven spots over the last two AP top 25 rankings after its signature victory at Notre Dame two weeks ago, and moved into the No. 9 position nationally entering its SEC opener at home in front of The 12th Man today.

Auburn slid out of the polls after a seven-point loss at Oklahoma marred by an officiating error and after quarterback Jackson Arnold was sacked 10 times, falling to 0-1 in SEC play and already under pressure to avoid dipping further under .500 in conference.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Tigers pay a visit to the Aggies this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Auburn and Texas A&M compare in this Week 5 college football game.

Auburn vs. Texas A&M score prediction

The models are siding with the home team in this SEC clash, and foresee Hugh Freeze’s team falling to 0-2 in conference play in this matchup.

SP+ predicts that Texas A&M will defeat Auburn outright by a projected score of 29 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5.0 points in the process.

The model gives the Aggies a strong 62 percent chance of victory against the Tigers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 94-101 against the spread with a 48.2 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The bookies agree that the Aggies are the favored team against the Tigers this weekend.

Texas A&M is a 6.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -255 and for Auburn at +205 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Auburn +6.5
• Texas A&M to win -255
• Bet over 51.5 points

But that’s not what most bettors are doing when looking over this matchup, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas A&M is getting the majority 64 percent of bets to win the game by at least a touchdown and cover the spread to stay undefeated.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Auburn will either defeat the Aggies outright in an upset, or keep the final margin under a touchdown in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also side with the Aggies over the Tigers in this SEC clash.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Texas A&M is an easy favorite by that metric, coming out ahead in the majority 68.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Auburn as the presumptive winner in the remaining 31.6 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

Texas A&M is projected to be just 4.7 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

• Texas A&M: 68.4% chance to win
• Auburn: 31.6% chance to win
• Prediction: Texas A&M by 5
• ATS pick: Auburn +6.5

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 72.3 percent of all games and hit 52.3 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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How to watch Auburn vs. Texas A&M

When: Sat., Sept. 27
Where: Texas A&M

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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