College football picks against the spread for Week 5 games

Let’s lock in our final predictions against the spread for the most important games on the Week 5 college football schedule this weekend.

One thing we know for certain: there will be plenty of changes in the national college football rankings after this week, with an epic slate of games that pit several currently ranked schools against each other on the same field.

Marquee action in the SEC and Big Ten, in particular, that takes place this weekend will have a direct consequence on what the future conference championship and even College Football Playoff picture eventually look like.

Here are the picks against the spread we’re making this week and where we’re putting our money looking ahead to college football’s Week 5 action.

College football picks against the spread for Week 5 games

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, and are subject to change

Florida State (-6.5) at Virginia

Virginia actually looks like one of the more improved teams in the conference right now, or at least its offense, ranking a solid 13th nationally in passing and 6th in rushing, led by quarterback Chandler Morris, but the Seminoles ground game should have a decisive advantage against the Cavaliers’ run stop.

ATS pick: Florida State -6.5

Notre Dame (-4.5) at Arkansas

Taylen Green and the Arkansas offense has proven to be one of the more potent units in college football this season, even coming off tough consecutive losses, and this group has the ability to exploit an Irish pass defense that has looked miserable at times.

But the Razorbacks present a weakness when defending the run, ranking 113th in the country in defensive rushing success rate, a big problem going against a Notre Dame backfield featuring Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.

ATS pick: Notre Dame -4.5

Auburn at Texas A&M (-6.5)

Auburn has struggled in its secondary defense this season and faces a big test against an Aggies’ vertical game that has found consistent success downfield, especially in a statement win at Notre Dame two weekends ago.

Mario Craver is the SEC’s most productive wide receiver, and he should enable Marcel Reed and the Texas A&M offense to spread things out in a way that Jackson Arnold is yet to prove able to, despite Auburn’s stellar receiving skill.

ATS pick: Texas A&M -6.5

LSU at Ole Miss (-1.5)

LSU was advertised as one of college football’s most potent offenses, but so far it ranks among the 75 best nationally in total output and when throwing the ball. And when they run it? That ranking plummets to 112th in FBS.

Ole Miss’ relative defensive weakness is against the run, which could portend well for LSU, but the Rebels’ offense will force the issue here in what should be the toughest single test for an otherwise-stellar LSU defense.

ATS pick: Ole Miss -1.5

USC (-6.5) at Illinois

Maybe the Illini aren’t quite as awful as they looked in that 53-point loss at Indiana last week, but in the process they absorbed a lot of injury concerns in the secondary, most notably the loss of defensive back Xavier Scott for the season.

USC comes into the game ranking third nationally in passing efficiency behind quarterback Jayden Maiava and 11th in total passing with no turnovers. Illinois has also been very inconsistent offensively thus far.

ATS pick: USC -6.5

Ohio State (-8.5) at Washington

Demond Williams is remarkably efficient: the Washington quarterback is completing almost 74 percent of his throws and is an explosive runner, forming a productive tandem with tailback Jonah Coleman and wide receiver Denzel Boston.

Ohio State wins, but closer than most expect given the talent the Huskies also field in the corners against the Buckeyes’ talented pass catchers. A late score makes it a double-digit game.

ATS pick: Ohio State -8.5

Oregon at Penn State (-3.5)

Neither of these Big Ten contenders have been really tested yet, but the pure efficiency of the Ducks’ offense does stand out when comparing these two units statistically.

Penn State could have a slight advantage on both lines when comparing physicality, but Drew Allar is just yet to really take that next step even with all this returning production.

ATS pick: Oregon +3.5

Alabama at Georgia (-2.5)

While all the heavy criticism is slanted towards Kalen DeBoer after Alabama’s stunning loss at Florida State, this Georgia side has some potential weaknesses of its own.

Especially in the defensive front, where it’s been uncharacteristically less dominant, ranking 79th in pressure rate, and the Bulldogs’ secondary was bested a little too often by Tennessee’s downfield attack two weeks ago.

Still, the Crimson Tide’s offensive line didn’t look the part against the Seminoles and could ultimately falter in the face of Georgia’s rushers, and the venue matters.

ATS pick: Georgia -2.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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