College football predictions for top Week 2 games by expert model

College Football HQ locks in our final predictions for the most important and consequential games on the Week 2 schedule on Saturday.

One week into the season, most teams should have brushed off their nerves from the 2025 opener, although some will find it easier than others.

Ohio State, Florida State, and LSU are riding high after impactful Week 1 victories, while their counterparts -- Texas, Alabama, and Clemson -- are already behind one game.

But with the expansion of the College Football Playoff, those early season losses aren’t quite as damaging to those losers’ reputations as they would have been in years past, so there’s plenty of breathing room just two weeks into the season.

This week finds most big-time programs playing their usual early-season cupcakes, albeit with some exceptions, notably an SEC vs. Big Ten matchup between Oklahoma and Michigan, a Cy-Hawk rivalry game, and the reigning Big 12 champ in action in SEC country.

Let’s take a turn around college football and lock in our predictions for the biggest Week 2 games on the schedule with a little help from the College Football Power Index.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College football predictions for Week 2 games

FIU at Penn State

Penn State: 98.1%
FIU: 1.9%

College Football HQ picks: Penn State. Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton had just 62 combined rushing yards in the opener against Nevada and the Nittany Lions averaged only 3.8 yards per carry, but that should change this week.

San Jose State at Texas

Texas: 98.8%
San Jose State: 1.2%

College Football HQ picks: Texas. Any concerns about Arch Manning after his sluggish debut in a loss at Ohio State should be at least temporarily relieved as he sets against a Spartans team that lost at home to Central Michigan in the opener.

Illinois at Duke

Illinois: 49.4%
Duke: 50.6%

College Football HQ picks: Illinois. The Illini have College Football Playoff hopes this year after bringing back most of last year’s 10-win team, but the Blue Devils are a tough out with Darian Mensah under center and fielding a good pass defense that will test Luke Altmyer in the passing game.

East Texas A&M at Florida State

Florida State: 98.6%
East Texas A&M: 1.4%

College Football HQ picks: Florida State. What a difference an offseason makes for the Seminoles after smashing Alabama by two scores in the opener, but now they have to stay the course and not look past this FCS opponent in their follow-up.

Iowa at Iowa State

Iowa State: 65.4%
Iowa: 34.6%

College Football HQ picks: Iowa State. Iowa’s vertical game is still an unsolved riddle, and while its run game has a chance to slow this game down again, the Cyclones look like the superior passing offense with Rocco Becht at the helm.

Baylor at SMU

SMU: 66.9%
Baylor: 33.1%

College Football HQ picks: SMU. Baylor’s defense was not in top form in a Week 1 loss at home to Auburn, which ran for over 300 yards in that game, and while the Mustangs won’t get to that number, they still have an edge on the ground.

Kennesaw State at Indiana

Indiana: 94.6%
Kennesaw State: 5.4%

College Football HQ picks: Indiana. Kennesaw nearly upset Wake Forest in the opener last weekend, and while it doesn’t appear to have the offense to hang here, the Hoosiers did get a few long ones go by in the opener against Old Dominion.

Kent State at Texas Tech

Texas Tech: 98.2%
Kent State: 1.8%

College Football HQ picks: Texas Tech. Kent State was the near consensus worst team in college football coming into this season, but they did snap a 21-game losing streak last week. Now, they face off against a Red Raiders squad that eclipsed 600 yards and scored 67 points in its opener.

Utah State at Texas A&M

Texas A&M: 96.2%
Utah State: 3.8%

College Football HQ picks: Texas A&M. Marcel Reed had a career-best 4 touchdowns last week, but the Aggies allowed over 200 rushing yards in a win against UTSA and have to tighten things up before facing Notre Dame next weekend.

Grambling at Ohio State

Ohio State: 99%
Grambling: 1%

College Football HQ picks: Ohio State. Julian Sayin didn’t do much with this offense in the win over Texas as the Buckeyes’ defense did the heavy lifting, but this could be the moment when things open up for him in a big way.

Austin Peay at Georgia

Georgia: 99%
Austin Peay: 1%

College Football HQ picks: Georgia. Austin Peay won its first-ever game against an FBS team last week for the first time in 38 years, but this should be a chance for Georgia to fine tune its run game, a weakness last year, and after its backs combined for 60 yards in the opener.

Oklahoma State at Oregon

Oregon: 93.3%
Oklahoma State: 6.7%

College Football HQ picks: Oregon. Not a great showing for the Cowboys’ offense in the opener as it lines up against a very dominant Oregon defense.

Troy at Clemson

Clemson: 92.4%
Troy: 7.6%

College Football HQ picks: Clemson. That vaunted Clemson offense that couldn’t get going in a loss to LSU should find some angles in this one.

Ole Miss at Kentucky

Ole Miss: 83.6%
Kentucky: 16.4%

College Football HQ picks: Ole Miss. Kentucky could get the ball moving on the ground early to make this interesting against a good Rebels front seven, but Ole Miss should be the superior passing offense here by some magnitude.

ETSU at Tennessee

Tennessee: 99%
ETSU: 1%

College Football HQ picks: Tennessee. Joey Aguilar played well enough in his Vols debut against Syracuse to still consider this a worthwhile playoff team, but the real first test comes against reigning SEC champion Georgia next Saturday.

USF at Florida

Florida: 82.7%
USF: 17.3%

College Football HQ picks: Florida. The Gators need to avoid looking ahead to marquee games against LSU and Miami in the future, especially against a Bulls squad that looked very impressive in a win over Boise State.

Cal Poly at Utah

Utah: 99%
Cal Poly: 1%

College Football HQ picks: Utah. Devon Dampier powered the Utes offense to a huge win at UCLA in the opener and got this team in the rankings and now goes against a Cal Poly team that won 3 games last season.

Bethune-Cookman at Miami

Miami: 99%
Bethune: 1%

College Football HQ picks: Miami. Bethune just allowed over 200 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground to FIU, so things could get squirrely against a Hurricanes squad that edged out Notre Dame in a statement Week 1 opener last week.

South Carolina State at South Carolina

South Carolina: 99%
SC State: 1%

College Football HQ picks: South Carolina. For the first time in a decade, the Gamecocks are in the top 10 after an important win over Virginia Tech heading into an eight-game SEC slate, with five of those opponents currently ranked.

Louisiana Tech at LSU

LSU: 97.2%
La Tech: 2.8%

College Football HQ picks: LSU. 1-0 for the first time since winning the national title, LSU returns home from its triumph at Clemson against a Bulldogs team that failed to eclipse 300 total yards in its opener.

Arizona State at Mississippi State

Arizona State: 54.1%
Mississippi State: 45.9%

College Football HQ picks: Arizona State. Sam Leavitt ran for 2 touchdowns and threw for 2 more as the Sun Devils played it a little close to beat Northern Arizona and now head into SEC country against what figures to be the conference’s worst team.

Michigan at Oklahoma

Oklahoma: 53.5%
Michigan: 46.5%

College Football HQ picks: Oklahoma. John Mateer should be an upgrade for the Sooners’ offense, but the run game is still an open question, especially against a Michigan defensive front that will challenge it.

UL Monroe at Alabama

Alabama: 96.3%
UL Monroe: 3.7%

College Football HQ picks: Alabama. Kalen DeBoer is under serious pressure already after a two-touchdown loss at Florida State, and any slip-ups in this game will only make things worse.