Rece Davis Picks Baylor-Auburn Winner in Week 1 College Football Matchup

Byrum Brown spent his college football career building one of the country's most explosive offenses at South Florida, a program most casual fans rarely watched closely. That changes Saturday night in Atlanta.

Brown and head coach Alex Golesh, who built that USF offense together before Golesh took over at Auburn, reunite on a much bigger stage against Baylor in the Aflac Kickoff Game.

On his College GameDay podcast, Rece Davis believes this college football program, leaning on that continuity and a defense that stuck together through a coaching change, will win in Week 1 against a former five-star talent looking for a fresh start.

Rece Davis picks Baylor-Auburn to win the Aflac Kickoff Game

Auburn Tigers quarterback Byrum Brown (17) throws the ball during the first day of football practice. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Davis is taking Auburn over Baylor at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, calling it one of his most interesting picks of opening weekend. "I'm also really interested in the Baylor-Auburn game," Davis said. "Alex Golesh is bringing a lot of the USF guys there."

He pointed to Golesh bringing over a wave of USF talent, led by Brown at quarterback, as the central storyline. Golesh built one of the sport's most explosive offenses at USF with Brown running it, and the two reunited on the Plains this offseason after Golesh left South Florida to take over Auburn's program.

Brown threw for 3,158 yards with 28 touchdowns and ran for 1,008 yards with 14 more scores in his final season at USF. He was the only FBS quarterback in 2025 to pair 3,000 passing yards with 1,000 rushing yards. He will lean on a system carrying over almost entirely intact, including offensive coordinator Joel Gordon.

Davis also cited continuity on Auburn's defense for players who stuck around through the coaching change, calling it a program built on experience in the right spots even without a favorable schedule to lean on.

Dan Wetzel joined Davis in picking Auburn, though he stopped short of full confidence. Wetzel said he wouldn't be surprised if Baylor and Lagway won outright, calling it a real measuring stick for what Lagway still has left after an uneven two years at Florida.

Pete Thamel didn't lock in a pick, but he described the matchup as a low-scoring, back-and-forth game that could come down to a final possession, pointing to both teams' offensive coordinators and defensive hires as reasons the game should be tighter than the name recognition gap between the programs suggests.

DJ Lagway gives Baylor a proven talent at quarterback

Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway takes questions from reporters during Big 12 Conference Football Media Days at The Star. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Lagway transferred to Baylor after two seasons at Florida, where he showed flashes of the talent that made him a five-star recruit before injuries and a chaotic coaching situation limited his production. He completed 63.2% of his passes for 2,264 yards with 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in his final season with the Gators.

Wetzel said Lagway has thrived away from the spotlight since arriving in Waco, working without the constant scrutiny that came with being the face of Florida's rebuild. Baylor coach Dave Aranda enters the season on a hot seat of his own, with the program looking for its first real jolt of momentum after finishing 5-7 last season.

Davis pointed to how deceiving Auburn's five-year losing streak has been. "They had a ton of close games last year, and you haven't realized that it's been as dire as it is," Davis said. He expects a similar type of tight finish here, betting Auburn's continuity and Brown's dual-threat ability at quarterback are enough to get through it.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC.

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