Josh Pate Predicts Only Six Wins For First-Year SEC Coach

This SEC program has a new coach, a new quarterback and a schedule that could make the transition difficult early

This first-year SEC coach is predicted to deliver a .500 record, but college football analyst Josh Pate has reasons for future optimism. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

New college football head coaches inherit more than a roster when they take over a program that's spent years searching for direction. They inherit the weight of expectations built up during the losing, the fans who want proof things have actually changed, and a schedule that rarely cares whether year one is supposed to be a rebuilding process.

Alex Golesh stepped into exactly that situation when he left South Florida in December to take over Auburn football. College football analyst Josh Pate evaluated the Tigers' 2026 outlook and landed on a win total that falls well short of what many around the program hope for in year one.

Why Josh Pate sees a bumpy first year

Pate pointed to a four-game midseason stretch as the reason for his skepticism. "When you have a trip to Neyland and then a trip to Sanford Stadium, and you've got to play LSU, and then you go to Ole Miss, I don't know of many four-game stretches out there that are tougher than that," Pate said. "Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss."

He also flagged Auburn's opening month as a potential source of early swings either way. "They play Baylor. They're a little over a touchdown favorite against them in Atlanta in Week 1. They've got Florida coming to Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 3," Pate said.

"Three games into the season, they could be 1-2. They could be 3-0. Neither of those things would be shocking."

Pate settled on a 6-6 record for Auburn's first season under Golesh. "I think there'll be moments you can believe in, the consistency that you have to play at to win more than six or seven games in this league. I don't think that'll be there this year," Pate said. "So I've got Auburn going six and six this year. I'm a huge believer in the future of that program."

What Alex Golesh and Byrum Brown have said about Year 1

Auburn Tigers quarterback Byrum Brown (17) talks with head coach Alex Golesh during the first day of football practice at the Woltosz Football Performance Center in Auburn, Ala. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Golesh spent three seasons at South Florida before Auburn hired him, posting a 23-15 record and a 9-3 mark in his final year there. He has talked openly about the offense needing time to develop, even with a roster that already knows his system.

"You better be able to adjust. You better be able to grow and evolve," Golesh said at SEC Media Days. "I think the core foundation is going to continue to be the same, but we've got to evolve and change."

Quarterback Byrum Brown followed Golesh to Auburn from South Florida, where he threw for 3,158 yards and ran for 1,008 more last season. Brown has made his expectations clear regardless of the transition. "You're gonna get everything," Brown said.

"Every single game. Whether I gotta run, whether I gotta throw, I'm gonna do whatever it takes to win."

Auburn opens the season against Baylor in Atlanta on September 5. Earlier this month, I predicted the Tigers would win more than 6.5 games this season.